ESPO crude premiums topped $30 in October before retreating to $20
Key Facts
A record premium for Russian crude over Brent on November 12, 2026 could not be verified from a credible open source. The latest available figures on Russian crude premiums are from earlier dates and concern ESPO crude destined for China, not all Russian crude grades. A Reuters report published on October 23 quoted ESPO cargoes from the Far East for delivery in late December and January at premiums of more than $25 per barrel over Brent futures, while offers for delivery to China exceeded $30. The report cited a recent deal by a large independent Chinese refinery for November and December cargoes at a premium of $23 to $26 per barrel. The available figures therefore point to high premiums in October, but do not establish a new figure for the November 12 session.
ESPO offers for November delivery had already risen sharply during September. S&P Global reported that the premium increased from about $4 to $5 per barrel over Brent futures at the start of the month to $15 or $16 on a delivery-to-Shandong basis by September 9. It then exceeded $20 late in the week of the APPEC conference. A source at a Shandong refinery told the publication on September 10 that offers for November cargoes exceeded $20 per barrel and remained above available spot-trading levels. These prices concern ESPO cargo offers and specific delivery periods; they do not represent a single price for Russian exports.
Deals reported in September reflected competition among Chinese buyers for available cargoes. An S&P Global report cited a Shandong independent refinery’s purchase of a very large crude carrier cargo of Plutonio crude for November delivery, at a premium of about $20 per barrel over January Brent futures on a delivery-to-Shandong basis. Chinese independent refineries also imported about 3.2 million metric tons of ESPO in August. China’s total imports of Russian crude reached 4.42 million metric tons in the same month, up 38.8% from July. These figures show the scale of Russian crude flows to China in August, but do not by themselves prove that Chinese demand directly caused premiums in the November session.
Russian crude purchases in Asia were not limited to China. According to data cited by S&P Global, India’s imports of Russian crude reached 1.6 million barrels per day in August, compared with 1.1 million barrels per day for China. On September 18, an Indian foreign ministry spokesman said the country would continue buying energy from diverse sources, guided by its national interest and the needs of its 1.4 billion people. The remarks put India’s imports in the context of diversifying energy sources, while the August figures remain an earlier indicator rather than a reading of current demand. The cited facts do not provide data establishing a direct effect of these purchases on ESPO premiums on November 12.
Premium levels shifted after September’s rise. On October 23, S&P Global said the premium for ESPO cargoes loaded in the Far East had fallen to $20 per barrel over Brent, from $30 a month earlier on a delivery-to-Shandong basis. An analyst at the publication said a U.S. waiver had reduced uncertainty over Indian and Chinese purchases of Russian crude, but had not changed the supply picture. The analyst said the waiver "is about reducing uncertainty, not changing the crude supply picture." The report added that policy and compliance risks could continue to affect buying decisions. The decline limits the extent to which September and October peaks can be used as an automatic description of November prices.
Transport costs also show how shipping conditions on the same route have fluctuated. Reuters reported on October 23 that Aframax tanker rates from Kozmino to China briefly rose to $10 million per voyage in October, before falling to about $2 million. In other Russian crude markets, Urals discounts at Primorsk narrowed to $21.65 per barrel below dated Brent on September 14, compared with a discount of $25.90 on August 17. Urals delivered to India’s west coast also shifted to a premium over dated Brent on September 8, reaching a premium of $1.05 on September 14 after a discount of $3.20 on August 17. These figures concern Urals crude and September dates, and cannot be combined with ESPO premiums for cargoes to China into a single figure. Brent settled at $92.76 per barrel on November 11, compared with $91.49 in the previous session.
In its broader market outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated in a November 10 report that Brent would average about $100 per barrel in November and December 2026, as oil flows from the Middle East remained constrained through the rest of the year. The agency said global inventories, which it estimated had fallen by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day in the third quarter, would begin rising in the fourth quarter of 2026 as global production exceeded consumption. It added that disruption risks and longer shipping routes limited the near-term impact of rising inventories. Further out, it forecast prices would gradually decline to an average of $77 per barrel in the final quarter of 2027. These are estimates for oil prices and inventories, not confirmation of a Russian crude premium in the November 12 session.