Iran Warns of Gas Supply Tensions in 11 Provinces as Output Falls 13%
Key Facts
Saeed Tavakoli, chief executive of the National Iranian Gas Company, warned that at least 11 provinces could face gas supply tensions this winter, with the risk more pronounced in Mazandaran, Golestan and North Khorasan. The warning came after gas output fell by about 13% following attacks on facilities and refineries at the South Pars complex on 18 March 2026, Mehr News Agency reported, citing Tavakoli. The official said conditions in the three provinces would be more strained as the country prepares for a seasonal rise in demand. Supplies had not been restricted at the time of his remarks: Tavakoli said gas was reaching all consumers without limits. He also said supplies to heavy industries, including steel and petrochemicals, had not been restricted despite the decline in output.
On the demand side, gas consumption has risen by about 60 million cubic metres since Saturday, Tavakoli said. The company expects the increase to reach about 70 million cubic metres by the end of the week compared with the previous week, putting the network under growing pressure before the winter peak begins. Tavakoli said: "From Saturday until now, gas consumption has risen by about 60 million cubic metres, and we expect the increase to reach about 70 million compared with last week by the end of the week." The rise in recent days shows that demand pressure is already present, as the country continues to recover from damage to production capacity. This becomes more significant as the period of higher heating consumption approaches.
Tavakoli said Iran had restored, on average, more than 95 million cubic metres of the production capacity it had lost, after a plan to return 100 million cubic metres to production before the start of the cold season. This points to progress in restoring damaged supplies, although the warning of tensions in the provinces remains. As for alternative reserves, stocks of diesel in liquid-fuel tanks have exceeded 3 billion litres, the official said. He said the gas required by all consumers was being delivered to the network without restrictions at the time of his remarks. These reserves provide a liquid fuel resource as part of winter preparations, while gas remains central to the warning because of lower output and strong demand.
The sensitivity of winter supplies is linked to how gas is allocated among sectors: about 80% of the gas injected into the network goes to household and commercial consumption in winter, according to Tavakoli. In Mazandaran, about 94% of gas consumed is allocated to the household and commercial sectors, helping explain why the province is among those most exposed to pressure. Tehran, meanwhile, consumes about 125 million cubic metres on cold days at peak demand, according to the same remarks. Tavakoli said supplies to heavy industries, including steel and petrochemicals, had not been restricted at that point. The figures put household and commercial consumption at the centre of demand management, while industrial sectors continue to receive gas.
The government has taken steps to curb consumption by executive bodies, requiring them to cut gas use by 20% from their allocated amounts. It also set office temperatures at 18 degrees Celsius during the cold season, according to a Mehr report. The measures aim to reduce government demand as the seasonal increase puts pressure on the network. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had urged citizens to cut gas consumption by 10% before winter, Reuters reported via Arab News. The agency also quoted First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref as saying gas prices could rise if excessive consumption continued while supplies fell.
The importance of gas extends beyond household heating: natural gas provides about 80% of Iran's electricity generation, the Associated Press reported, citing the International Energy Agency in March 2026. The agency said attacks on the South Pars field, which Iran and Qatar share in the Gulf, threatened Iran's electricity supplies, and that rising tensions around energy facilities had shaken global energy markets. In a separate estimate of the shortfall, Reuters reported via Arab News that government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani expected a gas supply deficit of about 430 million cubic metres this year, compared with about 300 million in previous years. The National Iranian Gas Company also said damage in the first phase of the war affected four processing facilities and initially cut capacity by about 230 million cubic metres, with about 100 million restored by the time of its statement in November 2026. Restoring capacity and reducing consumption remain among the main measures under consideration as the cold season approaches.