Ghalibaf: Strait of Hormuz Will Not Return to Its Previous Status Under Iran’s 7-Point Proposal

Key Facts

Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz would “never return” to its prewar status, in an interview published by Al Jazeera on November 11. He linked the position to an understanding he said Iran and Oman had reached to oversee the waterway, as part of Tehran’s 7-point proposal to end a conflict now in its 8th month. The statement puts shipping arrangements at the heart of Iran’s proposal, but does not mean a final agreement on managing the strait has been reached. Ghalibaf said Iran had sent its terms to the United States through a Qatari mediator. He added that Tehran was awaiting an official U.S. response.

Ghalibaf said Iran’s terms include lifting the naval blockade and U.S. sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian funds, ending fighting on all fronts, and an explicit declaration that the war is over. The parliament speaker said Tehran had conveyed these demands to Washington in a clear response through Qatari mediation and was awaiting an official position. That means the negotiating process, according to his account, has not yet moved to direct talks. Ghalibaf tied the start of negotiations to the demands being implemented, not merely to receiving a response. He said the terms were part of a memorandum of understanding signed in Islamabad in June, and that they must be implemented before talks with the United States begin.

On the waterway’s legal status, Ghalibaf said shipping rules in the strait are governed by the laws of the two coastal states, Iran and Oman. He rejected the application of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to the strait, saying that “the rules of the Strait of Hormuz are governed by the laws of the two coastal states that border it.” The position sets out Tehran’s view of the legal arrangements that should apply to the waterway, alongside its statements about an understanding with Muscat to oversee it. The statement, as reported by Al Jazeera, gave no operational details about the nature of the oversight or when it would take effect. Nor does it determine whether the understanding will become part of a broader deal to end the war.

Ghalibaf’s remarks come amid reports of risks to shipping in the strait. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said 3 ships struck sea mines and caught fire on Tuesday, November 10, while using a route it described as unauthorized, according to Iranian state media citing The Associated Press. The Associated Press was unable to independently verify the claim. Tehran’s announcement adds to concerns about transit through the waterway, while the account of the ships being hit remains attributed to the Revolutionary Guard. According to the published information, the incident does not include independent confirmation of the number of ships or the cause of the damage.

Hormuz’s economic importance stems from its role as a major route for energy flows. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that average oil flows through the strait were 20 million barrels per day in 2024, equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. The agency said 84% of the crude oil and condensate that passed through the strait that year went to Asian markets, as did 83% of liquefied natural gas. These shares tie the security of shipping to supplies destined for Asia, making any disruption to transit directly relevant to consumers and markets there. The figures show the scale of flows in 2024, while transit conditions have changed during the conflict.

Against the backdrop of diplomatic efforts, The Associated Press reported in September that mediators were working on a deal to end the fighting and reopen the strait, with major obstacles remaining between Iran and the United States. The agency reported that the draft deal under discussion would reopen the waterway under a separate agreement being discussed by Iran and Oman, without imposing transit fees. In August, Iran and Oman said a proposed framework for shipping included a temporary joint corridor and work to remove mines, with technical negotiations to continue toward a permanent arrangement. These statements provide context for efforts to coordinate bilaterally on shipping, but do not establish that the proposed arrangement has taken effect. The position Ghalibaf stated in the interview remains tied to awaiting Washington’s response and implementing the terms he described as prerequisites for negotiations.

EIA data point to a contraction in oil flows through the strait in 2026 compared with levels in late 2025. They averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, versus 21.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. The agency said the continuation of some flows through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s coast added supply to the market, and that the Brent spot price fell below $100 per barrel on November 4. It also estimated that Middle East oil production shut-ins averaged 2.5 million barrels per day in October, after peaking at 10.9 million in May. The agency forecast Brent would average about $100 per barrel in November and December, assuming Middle East oil flows remain partially constrained.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on December 8, 2026. The report will follow its forecast that Middle East oil flows will remain partially constrained during November and December, with Brent averaging near $100 per barrel in both months. Ghalibaf, meanwhile, says talks can begin only after the Iranian terms in the Islamabad memorandum signed in June are implemented. He said he was awaiting an official response from Washington to the terms Tehran conveyed through a Qatari mediator. The interview did not specify when that response might come or when negotiations might resume.