Grupo Mexico Beats Profit and Revenue Estimates, Cuts 2026 Copper Output Forecast
Key Facts
Grupo Mexico beat analysts’ estimates for net profit and revenue in the third quarter of 2026, Reuters reported via Kitco on October 21. Net profit came in above an estimate of $1.78 billion, while revenue topped an estimate of $5.81 billion. In the three months ended in September, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 50.5% to $3.77 billion. But the operating picture was mixed, as copper production fell from the same period a year earlier. In parallel, the group plans to expand projects at its U.S. unit, Asarco, with investments of up to $6 billion over the next three years.
Copper production totaled 260,322 tonnes in the third quarter, down 1.9% from the same quarter of 2025, Reuters reported. The company attributed the decline to lower output in Peru and at its Asarco unit, partly offset by increased production in Mexico. That means profit growth came in a quarter when output of the group’s main metal contracted. The company also cut its 2026 copper production forecast to 1.026 million metric tons, from a previous estimate of 1.034 million tons. The revision puts the annual production target below the group’s earlier expectation.
Metal prices supported results despite the decline in copper production, according to Reuters and the company’s interim report. The report showed copper prices up 30.6% from the same period in 2025, not since the start of the year. Molybdenum prices also rose 34.6%, zinc 26.2% and silver 108.2% year over year through the third quarter. The differing gains highlight broad price support across more than one of the group’s metals. Asarco previously spent $101 million in 2024, putting the upcoming U.S. investment plan in the context of a major expansion in spending.
Grupo Mexico expects to spend between $4 billion and $6 billion on Asarco’s main projects over the next three years, Reuters reported via Investing.com. The plan includes expanding the Ray and Silver Bell mines, as well as restarting the Hayden smelter and Amarillo refinery. The company is continuing work on the Ray expansion and conducting feasibility studies for the project, according to the mining executive. Silver Bell remains at the feasibility study stage, and the company expects greater clarity on it over the coming quarters. The projects are therefore at different stages of progress, ranging from expansion work and ongoing studies to a project still awaiting greater clarity.
The mining executive described the company as “increasingly optimistic” about restarting the Hayden smelter, which can process 1.4 million metric tons of copper concentrates annually. The executive said the capacity is associated with about 350,000 metric tons of contained copper, and feeding those volumes to the refinery could enable production of 500,000 metric tons of copper. These figures reflect the project’s potential capacity if it is restarted and the cited processing and refining arrangements are implemented. In a company disclosure, October 22, 2026, was set as the date to discuss third-quarter results. The release of fourth-quarter 2026 results was also provisionally scheduled for February 25, 2027.
Beating estimates did not prevent the stock from falling in the session after the results were announced. Grupo Mexico shares closed down more than 4% on Thursday, October 22, and were among the Mexican market’s weakest performers, according to Reuters via Investing.com. Reuters cited lower copper prices on the same day. On distributions, the board approved a share distribution equivalent to one common share for every 194 shares outstanding, at an estimated annual yield of 2.1%. Management said the distribution gives the company flexibility to grow.