Equinor Raises Production Growth Target to About 4%, Announces Buyback Framework Starting in 2027
Key Facts
On October 28, Equinor raised its forecast for oil and gas production growth in 2026 to about 4%, from 3% previously, citing higher third-quarter production and operations it described as safe and efficient. In its results statement, the company said it was "raising its 2026 oil and gas production growth guidance from 3% to about 4%." The revision represents a one-percentage-point increase in the full-year growth target. The announcement came with the release of third-quarter results and details of the fourth tranche of its 2026 share buyback program. The company also presented an annual buyback framework starting in 2027, subject to specific conditions related to oil and gas prices, balance-sheet strength and macroeconomic conditions.
Equinor's average total equity production was 2,166 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter of 2026, up 2% from the same period a year earlier. International production grew faster, rising 21% year over year during the quarter. The company attributed the international increase mainly to production added from Adora in the UK and Bacalhau in Brazil, as well as lower routine maintenance activity. Divestments and natural production decline, by contrast, limited the impact of those factors. The figures place third-quarter growth in the context of the higher annual guidance, with different rates of change for total and international production.
Equinor reported adjusted operating income of $12.35 billion and adjusted net income of $2.86 billion in the third quarter. The company said the results benefited mainly from higher liquids and European gas prices. Reported net operating income was $11.95 billion, compared with $5.27 billion in the third quarter of 2025. The company cited higher commodity prices and strong refining margins as factors supporting reported operating income. Separately, Reuters reported adjusted pretax profit of $12.4 billion, compared with $6.2 billion a year earlier, beating analysts' average forecast of $12.19 billion.
The expected 2026 buyback program remains separate from the company's framework for subsequent years; the current program totals $3 billion, including the Norwegian state's share of repurchased shares. Equinor said the third tranche, worth $1.125 billion, was completed on October 22. The fourth tranche has a total value of $1.125 billion, including market purchases of up to $371.3 million, with shares to be redeemed from the Norwegian state included in the total. The company linked the start of this tranche to market prospects and balance-sheet strength. These limits show that the total tranche figure includes a component tied to the state's share and is not equal to the amount allocated to market purchases.
The annual buyback framework of $2 to $4 billion starts in 2027 and is based on an oil price range of $60 to $80 per barrel and a European gas price range of $7 to $11 per million British thermal units. Equinor said the framework also takes into account balance-sheet strength and macroeconomic prospects. The announced annual amount is therefore linked to a combination of the price levels and financial and economic factors cited by the company. The framework does not change the expected 2026 program cap, which the company set at up to $3 billion. The board also decided to pay a cash dividend of $0.39 per share for the third quarter of 2026, separate from the buybacks.
Equinor said shares purchased under the fourth tranche of its 2026 program would be cancelled through a reduction in share capital at the company's annual general meeting in May 2027. The board will decide on tranches after the fourth on a quarterly basis, subject to approvals and an agreement with the Norwegian state. This timeline places cancellation of the fourth-tranche shares after the program year ends, while subsequent decisions remain subject to board reviews. Equinor is scheduled to publish its fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results on February 3, 2027. That will be the date for reporting annual results following the production growth guidance the company raised in October.