Attacks on Ships Near Hormuz Raise Shipping Risks Amid 750 October Transits
Key Facts
The Associated Press reported that maritime authorities and an Emirati company had reported attacks on ships in Gulf waters and near Oman, developments highlighting shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said a tanker had been struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Lima, Oman, and that its crew was safe. The agency did not identify the projectile or the party responsible for the incident in its statement. In a separate incident, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, or ADNOC, said one of its vessels had been attacked in the United Arab Emirates’ territorial waters in the Arabian Gulf. The company did not disclose the vessel’s name or identify the party that carried out the attack.
Reports of the attacks come as the International Maritime Organization is not advising ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, S&P Global reported, citing the organization’s secretary-general. The secretary-general said the organization had recorded 30 attacks during October and linked the advice to security and mine risks in the area. This puts ship operators on notice of a maritime warning based on the organization’s assessment of transit risks, as reports emerge of separate incidents near Oman and in UAE waters. The available information on both incidents did not attribute the tanker strike in Oman or the attack on an ADNOC vessel to any specific party. Nor did that information establish that the attacks disrupted liquefied natural gas flows or pushed oil prices higher.
But total observed and estimated shipping traffic through the strait did not decline between September and October, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data. Transits totaled 750 in October, compared with 749 in September, a slight month-on-month increase. The figures provide an overall picture of traffic through the passage, while the International Maritime Organization’s advice and warning about security and mine risks remain in place. The picture therefore combines continued transits at a level close to the previous month with an international warning against passage, as the organization recorded attacks during October. The aggregate figures alone do not break out the effect of incidents or warnings on traffic by vessel category.
The strait’s importance to global energy trade is reflected in the volume of flows passing through it. The International Energy Agency said an average of 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products passed through it in 2025, equivalent to about 25% of global seaborne oil trade. That volume means maritime security in the passage is tied to a large share of seaborne oil trade, while current reports concern attacks on ships and warnings about security and mine risks. The reported incidents do not include an estimate of the volume of oil cargoes affected by the recent events. Monthly transit data alone also do not measure changes in oil or gas supplies resulting from these developments.
Against the market backdrop, Commerzbank said in a report dated September 11, 2026, that oil prices had jumped to slightly above $100 a barrel as the confrontation between the United States and Iran escalated. The bank linked that jump to developments in the confrontation at the time, and its report also addressed an outlook for the escalation and Gulf shipments. That earlier assessment does not establish that November’s incidents drove prices higher, and the available information does not give an oil price for the session in which the news broke or Brent’s movement during it. Commerzbank shares, meanwhile, closed at $44.59 on November 11, 2026, according to EL7 data. That figure is the share’s closing price in that session and does not establish the impact of the attacks or oil movements on the stock.
In its September report, Commerzbank said it expected de-escalation to begin gradually over the following months and Gulf oil shipments to recover gradually through covert tanker transits across the strait, even without a diplomatic solution. The bank framed this as an outlook for the months ahead in its September 11 report, not as an assessment of November’s incidents. It said, "Oil shipments from the Gulf region should gradually recover thanks to tankers secretly transiting the strait." That outlook is tied to the bank’s expectation of de-escalation and covert transits, while more recent information points to the International Maritime Organization’s warning about security and mine risks and its recording of 30 attacks in October. The report did not give a more precise timeline for the gradual recovery beyond "the following months."