Turkish Industrial Output Rises 2.6% in September as New Credit Limits Remain Unverified
Key Facts
Industrial output in Turkey rose 2.6% year on year in September 2026, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, and increased 2.1% from the previous month. The figures provide economic context for reports of a change to loan growth limits, but there is no reliable official confirmation of a new adjustment on November 11. New credit limits therefore cannot be attributed to the central bank on that date. The latest limits that could be documented remain linked to an earlier decision issued on May 23, 2026. That decision lowered growth caps for eight weeks for certain lira-denominated loans.
In its May decision, the central bank set eight-week growth limits of 3% each for general consumer loans and car loans. It also set a 4.5% growth cap for lira-denominated loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, and 2% for lira-denominated loans to other companies. These figures provide a documented reference for the prudential policy stance at the time, but do not establish that the caps changed in November. In a summary of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the bank said average four-week retail loan growth slowed to 1% over the period from September 11 to October 16, 2026. Average growth in lira-denominated commercial loans was 2.3%, compared with 1.2% for foreign-currency commercial loans after adjusting for the exchange-rate effect.
The bank's data on funding and deposit rates showed declines over the period ended October 16 compared with the week ended September 11. Lira deposit rates fell 102 basis points to 42.9%. Lira commercial loan rates, excluding overdrafts and credit cards, dropped 680 basis points to 41.9%. Personal-needs loan rates, excluding overdrafts, also fell 264 basis points to 61.5%. These figures place credit activity in the broader context of changing borrowing and saving costs, without linking them to a new decision on the limits.
In August, central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said total loan growth had fallen from 34.6% at the end of February to about 25% at the time of the inflation report briefing. He attributed part of the slowdown to loan growth limits, the inclusion of overdraft accounts in those limits, and tighter exemptions. The remarks show that credit restrictions were among the tools the governor cited in explaining the slowdown in loan growth. They do not, however, provide evidence that those restrictions were adjusted on November 11. Separately from credit, the manufacturing index rose 2.6% year on year in September, while the mining and quarrying index increased 1.2%.
The electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply index also rose 4.0% year on year in September, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. The institute set December 10, 2026, as the release date for the next industrial production data. On monetary policy, the governor was scheduled to hold the 2026-IV Inflation Report briefing in Istanbul on November 12 at 10:30 a.m. That is one day after the date cited in reports about loan limits, offering an opportunity to follow what the bank says about inflation and monetary policy. The central bank's calendar set the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting for December 10, with its summary due to be published on December 17.