U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rises 11 basis points, nearing 5%

Key Facts

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to near 5% on Tuesday, November 10, after inflation data and Federal Reserve officials’ comments refocused attention on the possibility that monetary policy will remain tight. Jack Chambers, an interest-rate strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said yields still had room to rise. Chambers links that view to economic activity momentum and growing expectations of near-term Fed tightening. That outlook faces a countervailing factor: lower oil prices, which could ease inflation concerns and halt the rise in yields for a time. According to an InvestingLive report, a hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading and central bank officials’ comments preceded Tuesday’s yield increase.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the consumer price index rose 0.4% month over month in October, following a 0.6% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% during the month, according to InvestingLive. The reading showed a slowdown in the headline index compared with the previous month, but did not prevent Treasury yields from rising in Tuesday’s session. The bureau did not report an annual inflation rate for October, because the effects of the previous year’s government shutdown prevented it from collecting October 2025 data, according to the Associated Press. The published figures therefore focused on the monthly change, alongside signals from Fed officials about the next interest-rate move.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he leaned toward supporting a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December meeting if conditions developed as he expected. But he said a 50-basis-point increase should be on the table if core inflation in October came in close to the previous two readings, at around 0.3% or higher. InvestingLive had reported that Waller raised the possibility of a larger increase in December; the text of his remarks specified the condition he tied to that possibility. Waller described economic activity as strong and the labor market as stable, and said inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target. He also said he had been told that the costs of insuring ships and transferring oil from one vessel to another add $20 to $30 a barrel to oil prices.

In another sign that the debate over continued tightening is ongoing, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she favored at least two more increases of a quarter percentage point each, according to InvestingLive. The report said markets had largely priced in a rate increase in December. That means investors’ focus extends beyond the baseline possibility of a hike to the size of an increase that the inflation path might justify. Waller’s comments remain conditional on the core inflation reading, while Logan’s reflect her stated preference for further increases. These positions come as Chambers ties his outlook for higher yields to resilient economic momentum and expectations of tighter policy.

The yield’s path in late October provides context for its return to near 5% in Tuesday’s session. The 10-year yield stood at 5.00% on October 26 and reached 5.05% on October 28, before falling to 4.94% on October 30, according to U.S. Treasury data. On Wednesday, November 11, Brent crude rose 1.4% to $92.76 a barrel, according to the Associated Press. The agency noted that the U.S. bond market was closed that day for Veterans Day, after yields rose in the previous session following a worse-than-expected inflation reading. This context shows that Wednesday’s move in oil did not coincide with trading in U.S. bonds, and that the yield near 5% refers to Tuesday’s session.

InvestingLive said a rise in the 10-year yield toward and above 5% could keep the dollar supported and weigh on gold and highly valued technology stocks. But the report identified falling oil prices as a factor that could temporarily halt the rise in yields over the coming weeks by easing inflation concerns. If oil prices rise again amid the war linked to Iran, that could reinforce the upward trend in yields, the report said. By contrast, the Associated Press reported that oil prices had fallen sharply in recent days as hopes grew that the conflict would subside, while gasoline prices rose 1% between September and October despite falling during the month. The balance traders are watching therefore depends on whether the easing effect from energy holds up against strong economic activity and Fed officials’ comments.

The next milestone is October’s producer price index data, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release on November 13, 2026, at 08:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The release follows consumer price data and Waller’s comments, which brought the possibility of a larger increase in December back into the debate, conditional on a specific path for core inflation. Producer price data would add a new figure to the monitoring of price pressures as investors weigh the slowdown in monthly consumer price inflation compared with September against concerns that inflation will remain above the Fed’s target. The bureau’s schedule did not specify a numerical forecast for the index reading. Yield moves will also remain tied to developments in oil prices and further comments from Fed officials, among the factors outlined by InvestingLive.