Brent falls 1.2% to $91.5 as Washington-Tehran tensions ease
Key Facts
Brent crude fell 1.2% to about $91.5 a barrel on Thursday, November 12, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.16% to $85.5, according to a report by NDTV Profit. The report linked the market move to the absence of any fresh escalation between the United States and Iran, while peace talks showed no visible progress. The decline came as oil exports from the Middle East began to regain some momentum after supply disruptions. These prices were levels reached by crude during the session, not daily closing prices. EL7 data showed Brent closed at $92.76 on November 11, after closing at $91.49 on November 10.
The price decline coincided with an increase in Saudi production reported to OPEC, according to figures cited in the coverage. Output by the broader group of OPEC+ producers also rose, according to the accompanying data, reinforcing the trend toward higher supply. But the report did not establish that the increase in Saudi production directly caused Brent’s decline during the November 12 session. The production figure comes amid a price move that coincided with other factors, including easing U.S.-Iran tensions and the recovery of some regional oil flows.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the average volume of oil production shut in across the Middle East was 2.5 million barrels a day in October, down from a peak of 10.9 million barrels a day in May. The agency said Middle Eastern oil exports edged higher in October after operations resumed on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz also continued, using ship-to-ship transfers off the coast of Oman. Brent spot prices had fallen below $100 a barrel on November 4, as those flows continued and the pipeline returned to service. These developments show that some supply returned to the market, although export routes remained tied to alternative shipping arrangements.
International Energy Agency data show the scale of the recovery in Gulf exports in September: crude exports from Gulf producers, led by Saudi Arabia, rose by 4.4 million barrels a day to 13.9 million. The agency said that was more than 75% of pre-war levels. Over the same period, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz increased by 3.7 million barrels a day to 10.9 million, with ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman contributing. These figures, which predate the November 12 session, put the supply recovery in a broader timeframe. U.S. commercial crude inventories stood at 410 million barrels at the end of October, their lowest end-October level since 2014, according to the Energy Information Administration.
In its forecasts, the Energy Information Administration said the average Brent spot price could reach $104 a barrel in November and $99 in December, before falling to $86 in 2027. It attributed the subsequent downward path to rising supply and inventory rebuilding. In another estimate, the agency forecast that prices would remain near $100 a barrel for the rest of 2026, then gradually fall to an average of $77 in the fourth quarter of 2027 as global inventories grow. These estimates reflect a path conditional on supply returning and inventories accumulating, while the November 12 session showed a daily decline alongside easing tensions. On production decisions, the seven countries participating in the OPEC+ meeting decided to keep required production levels for September unchanged in December and set November 29 for their next meeting to review market conditions.