Dollar Index Rises 0.15% to 103.02, Its Highest Since April 2025
Key Facts
The Dollar Index rose 0.15% to 103.02 in Thursday’s session on November 12, its highest level since April 2025, according to a Reuters report via MarketScreener. The advance came as traders increased their bets on further tightening by the Federal Reserve after stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data and comments from central bank officials. The report said officials had expressed concern about persistent inflation and left the possibility of a larger rate increase in December on the table. The index measures the U.S. currency’s performance against a basket of currencies, making its movement an indicator of the breadth of demand for the dollar in foreign-exchange markets. In the same session, major currencies posted mixed performances against it, while the U.S. rate path remained a focus of market moves.
Reuters said higher-than-expected October consumer-price data helped bolster bets on tighter monetary policy. The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in October from a month earlier, after a 0.6% increase in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in October, the same monthly increase recorded in September and August. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said core personal consumption expenditures inflation rose 0.3% in September and 3.1% in the 12 months through September. Waller said, "More than 70% of the components of core PCE services prices recorded annual increases exceeding 3% in September," pointing to the continued breadth of price pressures.
A 50-basis-point increase remains one possibility that Federal Reserve officials have not ruled out, Reuters reported, as markets reassess the rate path following October’s data. The report said traders raised their bets on further tightening after the data and hawkish comments that focused on persistent inflation. The Federal Reserve raised its target rate range by a quarter percentage point in September to 3.75%-4%, saying inflation remained elevated. That move provides the backdrop for discussion of the size of any subsequent increase, while inflation and its trajectory remain central to policymakers’ assessments. Waller said in an earlier speech that energy pressures could persist through 2027, and that insurance and oil-transport costs linked to risks around the Strait of Hormuz add $20 to $30 a barrel.
In foreign-exchange markets, the dollar rose 0.04% to 159.83 yen after earlier reaching its highest level in more than two months, Reuters reported. The report attributed support for the U.S. currency to widening interest-rate differentials as bets on U.S. rate hikes increased. A warning from Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s top currency diplomat, weighed on the dollar-yen pair during the session. He said, "It is still too soon to forget the Japanese authorities’ intervention over the summer," sending the pair to its lowest level of the day before it recovered. In Japan, annual wholesale price inflation accelerated to 7.1% in October from 6.8% in September, a reading Reuters said bolstered expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase next month. But board member Toyoichiro Asada opposed calls for a near-term hike, warning that moving too soon could hurt growth and reduce core inflation; he was among those who opposed September’s decision to raise borrowing costs to 1.25%.
Other currencies made limited moves in the session: the euro rose 0.06% against the dollar to $1.1096, while sterling fell 0.1% to $1.3266, Reuters reported. Goldman Sachs and some brokerages forecast another U.S. rate increase early next year, in addition to one in December. That forecast adds a possible tightening path to current market bets, while monetary-policy conditions diverge between the United States and Japan. It comes as Waller’s speech pointed to persistent price and energy pressures, with some of those pressures potentially extending into 2027. New York Fed President John Williams is scheduled to take part in a panel discussion on Thursday evening, and Reuters expects markets to follow his guidance on interest rates.
Markets are watching for U.S. producer price data for October, scheduled for release on November 13, 2026, at 08:30 a.m. Eastern time, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has also scheduled the release of its second estimate of third-quarter GDP and corporate profits for November 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. The data come as markets track whether price pressures will strengthen bets on further rate increases. For comparison with the daily session, the Dollar Index closed at 102.945 on November 11, according to EL7 data. In the latest session, the index reached 103.02, its highest level since April 2025, according to Reuters.