Nebius plans to spend up to $45 billion in 2027 to add more than 1 gigawatt

Key Facts

Nebius announced on November 12, 2026, a capital expenditure plan of $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027 to fund the addition of more than 1 gigawatt of new capacity, alongside expected revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion. The company is targeting pretax break-even in the fourth quarter of that year, according to its shareholder letter filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. That puts infrastructure expansion at the forefront of its results for the third quarter and the nine months ended September 30. The guidance implies capital spending of more than three times expected annual revenue in 2027. The company said it would begin issuing guidance for revenue, pretax profit and capacity from 2027, after concluding that an annualized revenue run rate calculated from a single month did not reflect the scale of its business.

Third-quarter revenue rose to $980.8 million from $146.1 million in the same period of 2025, up 571% year over year, according to the official results. For the nine months ended September 30, the company recorded revenue of $1,962.1 million, compared with $302.1 million a year earlier, an increase of 549%. Quarterly revenue exceeded analysts’ estimates of $907.5 million, according to Reuters, although the company said it expected 2026 revenue to come in at the bottom of its previous range of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion. Nebius kept its expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin at about 40%. The company also moved its forecast for the annualized revenue run rate calculated from a single month to exceed $7 billion to February 2027, from December.

On profitability, Nebius recorded adjusted EBITDA of $465.8 million in the third quarter, after a loss of $5.2 million in the same period a year earlier. At the same time, its net loss from continuing operations was $37.5 million. Purchases of property, equipment and intangible assets rose to $7,300.4 million, compared with $955.5 million a year earlier, an increase of 664%. The surge in purchases is consistent with raising its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to about $27 billion, from the previous range of $20 billion to $25 billion. The company said 2026 investments include building the capacity needed for 2027, particularly at sites it owns.

The plan relies on customer-related financing alongside the balance sheet: the company expects to cover 75% to 85% of 2027 spending through upfront payments and asset-backed financing from investment-grade customers, with a contribution from its balance sheet. Nebius said its customers committed to more than $12 billion in contract value since the start of the third quarter. Upfront payments for contracts signed in that quarter also covered more than 100% of the associated capital expenditure, compared with 50% to 60% in the second quarter. These figures link expansion financing to the capacity contracts the company sells, as it moves toward investments far larger than its current spending. Chief Financial Officer Dado Alonso said customers were already looking for capacity for 2028 and that prices for 2027 capacity were rising, adding: "We see no risks" to selling the capacity.

But some third-party capacity that had been expected to come online during 2026 was delayed until the first half of 2027, while the related contracts remained in place, the company said. Nebius attributed its revised 2026 revenue forecast to the delay and said its owned sites under development were on schedule or ahead of schedule, according to the chief executive as quoted by Reuters. Arkady Volozh said delays at external sites were common in the sector and that "none of that capacity was canceled, and some of it moved into 2027." The delayed sites included third-party locations, among them a site in New Jersey, Reuters reported. The shift in the commissioning date means some of the capacity planned for this year will not be available until the first half of next year.

The revision to the 2026 outlook and the capacity delays were reflected in the stock’s trading on November 12: Reuters said Nebius shares fell 16% amid a broader retreat in AI stocks. The shares closed at $128.64, compared with $154.69 in the previous session, according to EL7 data. The decline came on a day when the company reported results that beat analysts’ estimates for quarterly revenue, but investors remained focused on the timing of capacity coming online and the revised revenue outlook. The next operational step will be bringing the delayed third-party capacity online during the first half of 2027. In February of that year, the company expects its annualized revenue run rate calculated from a single month to exceed $7 billion, while its guidance targets pretax break-even in the fourth quarter.