US 10-year Treasury yield jumps to 4.99% as rate expectations are repriced
Key Facts
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.99% at Tuesday’s close on November 10, from 4.88% late Monday, as investors reassessed the rate path after inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Yields jumped despite a decline in oil prices, while US stocks fell during the session. The S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, giving back some of its large gains from the previous day, according to the Associated Press. The yield move reflects the market’s sensitivity to the possibility that monetary policy will remain restrictive or rates will be raised again in December. These levels capture the session’s outcome: the yield had closed Monday at 4.88% before rising to 4.99%.
Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed the consumer price index rose 0.4% month over month in October, after a 0.6% increase in September. The index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in October, matching the pace recorded in September and August. Core inflation holding steady for three consecutive months was central to the debate over whether price pressures are easing quickly enough. But headline inflation slowed from the previous month, and that smaller monthly increase did not prevent Treasury yields from rising. The bureau did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations, and therefore did not publish the year-over-year change for most October 2026 series.
Before the October data were released, Waller said he would continue to support a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December meeting even if inflation improved, according to the text of his remarks published on the Federal Reserve’s website. But he raised the possibility of a larger move if core inflation came in near or above the previous two readings, at about 0.3% or higher. In that case, he said a 50-basis-point increase “should be under consideration” at the December meeting. He added that settling for a 25-basis-point increase “would put our credibility at risk.” Waller thus tied his position to price data, saying the inflation path could call for a stronger response than the increase he had initially leaned toward supporting.
The yield’s return to near 5% follows a decline since early October, when it exceeded 5.30% amid concerns about high inflation, interest rates and the size of US government debt, according to the Associated Press. The 10-year yield helps determine mortgage rates and other borrowing costs for households and businesses in the United States. Higher yields also typically weigh on stock prices, with a potentially greater effect on real estate companies, the agency said. In Tuesday’s session, the yield increase coincided with Brent crude falling 1.2% to $91.49 a barrel. Brent had topped $112 a barrel at the start of the month before retreating as market expectations for oil continued to shift.
Waller warned that energy pressures could have a longer-lasting effect on core inflation, saying they could persist into 2027, particularly if oil prices remain high. That came as oil fell in Tuesday’s session, a move that did not prevent Treasury yields from rising on the same day. The Bureau of Labor Statistics was scheduled to release the October producer price index on Friday, November 13, 2026, at 08:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The Federal Open Market Committee is then scheduled to hold its next meeting on December 8 and 9. These milestones put producer price data and the Fed’s decision at the center of investors’ focus on the inflation and interest-rate outlook.