Dollar Reaches 158.90 Yen as 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Rises to 4.99%
Key Facts
The dollar rose to 158.90 yen in the Asian session on Wednesday, November 11, from 158.70 yen in the previous session, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.99% from 4.88%, according to The Associated Press. The move followed the release of U.S. consumer price data for October, which showed the core index rising 0.3% month over month. That kept core inflation at the same pace recorded in September and August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The all-items index also rose 0.4% in October, after a 0.6% increase in September. The figures put the inflation path and bond yields at the forefront of currency-market attention, as investors await the next U.S. data.
The dollar gained 0.47% to 158.66 yen in Tuesday, November 10, trading, while the U.S. two-year Treasury yield rose 19.07 basis points to 4.738%, according to Reuters in a report carried by MarketScreener. The report said markets priced in an 89% probability that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December. That pricing followed inflation described in the report as higher than expected, bolstering expectations of monetary tightening. Moves in short- and long-term yields reflect investors’ focus on how price data may affect monetary policy expectations. EL7 data also recorded a daily close for the dollar/yen pair at 158.872 on November 10.
Inflation details showed the energy index’s increase slowing to 0.7% in October, after a 5.2% rise in September. The gasoline index rose 1.0% during the month, compared with a 9.1% increase in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. By contrast, the shelter index rose 0.3% in October, accounting for more than 30% of the monthly increase in the all-items index. The monthly change in the core index, which excludes food and energy, held at 0.3% in August, September and October. These components show differing rates of increase across energy, shelter and core prices over the three months.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations, making it impossible to publish year-over-year changes for October 2026 for most Consumer Price Index series. In Japan, a summary of opinions from Bank of Japan members on the October 29 and 30 meeting said some members saw underlying inflation as broadly consistent with the 2% price stability target and considered further rate increases appropriate. Other members, by contrast, favored holding rates at that meeting to monitor the effects of previous increases. The bank said the annual rate of increase in the consumer price index excluding fresh food was expected to exceed 3% near the end of the fiscal year. These views on Japan’s monetary policy outlook form part of the backdrop for the dollar-yen pair, alongside the U.S. inflation path.
Attention now turns to the U.S. producer price index for October, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled for release on Friday, November 13, at 08:30 a.m. Eastern time. The release is the next economic date listed in the available data for tracking producer prices in the United States. It will follow consumer price data showing the monthly increase in the all-items index slowing to 0.4% from 0.6% in September. The data also showed the core index rising 0.3% monthly for a third consecutive month. Markets are tracking U.S. price figures as they price in an 89% probability of a December rate increase, according to a Reuters report published on November 10.