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Macro EconomyMedium•11 November 2026•
3 min read

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in October, Exceeding Forecasts

Key Facts

1The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, compared with a 0.6% increase in September and expectations of 0.3%.
2The unadjusted U.S. Consumer Price Index stood at 337.511 points in October 2026.
3The shelter index rose 0.4% in October and made the largest contribution to the increase in the overall index.
4The core index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October.
5The November Consumer Price Index report is due on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, exceeding economists’ forecast for a 0.3% increase, Reuters reported via MarketScreener. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the index stood at an unadjusted 337.511 points, on a 1982–84=100 basis. The monthly increase slowed from 0.6% in September but remained above expectations. The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% during the month. The data come as investors monitor the inflation trajectory and what it may mean for monetary policy.

Shelter led the monthly increase in the overall index, with its index rising 0.4% in October and making the largest contribution to higher prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This highlights the continued contribution of housing costs to the inflation reading, alongside energy movements. The energy index rose 1.5% during the month, while the gasoline index increased 4.5%. The energy index had risen 1.0% in September, according to the official report. These components place October’s reading in the context of concurrent pressures from shelter and energy, even as the monthly increase in the overall index slowed from the previous month.

In the housing market, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at Freddie Mac had reached 7.18% on November 5, down from 7.24% the previous week, according to company data. This was a weekly reading from before the inflation report was released on November 10, and does not measure the move on the day of the announcement. Freddie Mac’s archive also showed the average falling from 7.40% on October 15 to 7.18% on November 5. This weekly series differs from the contract rate published by other organizations, so the figures here do not describe a daily rise in mortgage costs. A jump in mortgage rates during the news session could not be verified through a reliable open source.

On the interest rate outlook, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he leaned toward supporting a 25-basis-point increase at the December meeting. He added that a monthly core inflation reading of 0.3% or higher could warrant discussion of a 50-basis-point increase at the same meeting. By contrast, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said she supported keeping the target range for interest rates at 3.75%–4.00% after the October meeting. She said the October personal consumption expenditures inflation report and the November employment report would be released before the next meeting in December. These remain statements by central bank officials, while the interest rate decision will be based on data received before the meeting.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its November Consumer Price Index report on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The release date sets the next milestone in monitoring inflation after the October reading. The October personal consumption expenditures and November employment reports will be released before the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, according to Bowman. October data show the overall index rising 0.4% and the core index 0.3% on a monthly basis. November data will be among the figures awaited before the next inflation reading is released.