EIA Sees Brent Near $100 a Barrel in November and December
Key Facts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects spot Brent crude to average about $100 a barrel in November and December as supply constraints persist. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released on November 10, the agency said, "Brent will average about $100 a barrel during November and December amid ongoing constraints." The forecast puts prices at elevated levels for the final two months of the year, amid disruptions affecting crude flows from the Middle East and its transport routes. But prices did not rise steadily: the agency said spot prices fell below $100 a barrel on November 4. It linked the decline to increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz and improved supplies from the Middle East.
Spot Brent averaged $124 a barrel in October, up $10 from September, according to agency data. The report described October’s average as the highest since July 2022, when the price was $127 a barrel after inflation adjustment. The agency attributed October’s price increase to falling global inventories, as well as attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East and Black Sea. It said the attacks reduced tanker availability and raised freight rates, adding pressure to crude transportation costs. By contrast, it recorded a slight increase in Middle Eastern oil exports in October after the Saudi East-West pipeline resumed operations.
The agency said average shut-in oil production in the Middle East was 2.5 million barrels per day in October, compared with a peak of 10.9 million barrels per day in May. The decline points to a partial easing in the volume of halted production, while the agency said supply constraints remain in place. This coincided with global inventory draws averaging 1.2 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026. The agency expects inventories to begin building in the fourth quarter, as global oil production exceeds consumption over the same period. However, supply disruption risks and longer shipping routes limit the effect of inventory growth on prices in the near term.
On the demand side, the agency estimated that global liquid fuels consumption would fall by 2.0 million barrels per day in 2026, before rising by an average of 2.0 million barrels per day in 2027. In its October forecast, average Brent was projected at $96.32 a barrel for 2026, while the estimate for 2027 was about $83.74. The October estimate provides a baseline for comparison with the November forecast, while the new outlook focuses on spot prices staying near $100 during November and December. The agency expects global inventories to decline in the fourth quarter of 2026, then rise by 3.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2027. It said inventory accumulation would push Brent below $90 a barrel in the second quarter of 2027.
The projected path extends into the fourth quarter of 2027, when the agency expects average Brent to fall to $77 a barrel as global inventories are rebuilt. It also expects Middle Eastern oil exports to recover gradually, and most of the region’s production, excluding Iran, to return to pre-conflict averages by the end of the second quarter of 2027. It said Iranian exports would remain constrained throughout the forecast period. The November report was released on November 10, after its modeling and analysis were completed on November 5, and the agency set December 8 as the date for its next release. In the nearer term, the agency’s schedule lists November 12 as the rescheduled release date for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ended November 6, because of the Veterans Day holiday.