Dollar at 102.22 as Markets Reprice December Rate-Hike Odds

Key Facts

The dollar index held at 102.22 in Asian trading on November 11, near its highest level since October 28, according to Reuters via Yahoo Finance. The move came after markets repriced the U.S. interest-rate path following data showing persistent price pressures. Reuters reported that the index had posted overnight gains, while EL7 data showed it closed at 102.15 on November 10, compared with 101.54 on November 9. The index measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of 6 currencies. The latest move puts the U.S. currency near its highest levels since late October, as the impact of rate expectations spread to bond and currency markets.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% month over month in October, after a 0.6% increase in September. Among its components, the shelter index rose 0.3% in October, accounting for more than 30% of the monthly increase in the overall index. Core inflation, which drew investors’ attention in Reuters’ report, rose 0.3% month over month, above expectations of 0.2%. The September core inflation reading was also 0.3%. Reuters said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had indicated before the data release that a core reading of 0.3% would lead him to consider a 50-basis-point hike at the next meeting in December.

The repricing was reflected in expectations for the Fed’s decision; Reuters said a quarter-point hike in December had become almost fully priced into markets, with a 10% probability remaining for a larger increase of 50 basis points. The agency quoted Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warning of a “real inflation problem.” In the debt market, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes jumped 18 basis points overnight from November 10 to 11, as investors reassessed rate expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield also rose to 4.99% on Tuesday, from 4.88% late Monday, according to the Associated Press. The agency said the rise in yields coincided with a decline in Wall Street stocks after the inflation data.

The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment reading came within the broader economic context, as the preliminary index rose to 51.0 in November from a final reading of 48.0 in October. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected the index to remain at 48.0, according to the agency. Available evidence does not attribute the dollar’s move in the November 11 session to the sentiment reading or to other economic activity data. The Michigan reading therefore remains a separate indicator of improving sentiment at the start of November, while market coverage of the dollar’s move focused on inflation and rate repricing. Comparing the preliminary November reading with the final October reading provides a measure of the change in consumer sentiment over the period.

The next official release on the U.S. data calendar is the October Producer Price Index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the report for November 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The Federal Reserve will hold its next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 8 and 9, with a press conference on December 9, according to the board’s calendar. These dates follow October data showing core inflation above expectations and Reuters’ report that markets were treating a quarter-point hike in December as almost fully priced in. The possibility of a 50-basis-point increase also remains part of market pricing, at 10%, according to the agency’s report.