Colombia’s annual inflation reaches 6.30% as monthly reading falls short of forecasts
Key Facts
Colombia’s annual inflation reached 6.30% in October 2026, compared with 5.51% in the year through October 2025, while the consumer price index rose 0.20% from September, according to Colombia’s statistics agency. The monthly reading was below the Reuters poll average forecast of 0.27%, according to a Reuters report republished by GBM Media. This places the annual increase in the context of persistent price pressures, while distinguishing it from the monthly surprise, which came in below the market estimate. In the United States, the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October after increasing 0.6% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, Tuesday’s dollar exchange-rate figures could not be verified from a reliable open source, so the currency’s move that day is not attributed to the inflation readings.
Colombia’s monthly reading came in below market expectations, despite the annual rate rising to 6.30%. The combined contribution of housing, water, electricity and gas; food and non-alcoholic beverages; and restaurants and hotels was 0.15 percentage point of the total monthly change, according to the statistics agency’s report. These contributions show where October’s increase was recorded, while the overall monthly index remained at 0.20%. The annual comparison shows an increase from 5.51% in October 2025 to 6.30% in October 2026. This trajectory comes as the Bank of the Republic kept its policy rate at 12.25% in its decision on October 30.
In the United States, the monthly increase in the consumer price index slowed to 0.4% in October from 0.6% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in October, the same increase recorded in September and August. The shelter index rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the overall monthly increase, while food rose 0.5% and energy 0.7%. The bureau did not publish the annual change in the October index because October 2025 data needed for comparison were unavailable. These figures are monthly readings and should not be presented as an annual rate of U.S. inflation.
Colombia’s market representative dollar rate was 3,181 pesos a month ago and rose by 116 pesos to 3,297 on November 11, according to El Espectador. This comparison shows a change over a month, not a verified dollar rate during Tuesday’s session covered in the report. In its October monetary policy report, the Bank of the Republic said the peso’s appreciation helped contain inflation because goods and inputs imported and paid for in dollars become less costly. This reflects the exchange-rate channel’s effect on import costs and domestic prices, as described by the bank. The available monthly rate figures cover the change through November 11, while verified data for the session itself are unavailable here.
The Bank of the Republic forecast that inflation would continue rising through the rest of 2026 before beginning to fall in 2027 and approaching 3% in 2028. The bank attributed the pressures to labor costs, the El Niño phenomenon, continued economic momentum, and the effect of the Middle East conflict on external prices and costs. Against this backdrop, the board kept the policy rate at 12.25% on October 30. The bank said upcoming monetary policy decisions would depend on new information on prices and economic activity, as well as developments in the risk factors it identified. Its next policy rate decision is scheduled for December 18, 2026.
Looking ahead to upcoming data, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the release of its November consumer price index report for December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The report follows the absence of an annual U.S. inflation rate for October because data for the same month a year earlier were unavailable. In Colombia, the market is watching for the Bank of the Republic’s decision on December 18, after it held rates at 12.25% at the end of October. The bank said its next moves would depend on new data on prices, economic activity and risks. The available sources contained no verified dollar rate figures for Tuesday’s session itself.