U.S. October Retail Sales Scheduled for Nov. 17 as Inflation Accelerates
Key Facts
The U.S. Census Bureau scheduled Nov. 17 for the release of its advance estimate of October retail and food services sales, after issuing the September report on Oct. 15. That timing means the official reading of October spending will come after consumer price data published on Nov. 10. In the latest available retail data, sales totaled $745.0 billion in September, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from September 2025, according to the Census Bureau. These are nominal estimates that do not adjust for price changes, so they do not on their own reflect the volume of goods and services purchased after inflation. Investors are awaiting the October report to gauge the trajectory of household spending in a month when the consumer price index rose.
September details showed a divergence between total sales and some of its components: gas station sales rose 6.4%, while retail sales excluding gas stations increased 0.2%, according to the Associated Press. The difference indicates that gas stations posted much faster growth than the rest of retail that month. The total sales reading of $745.0 billion remains a measure of nominal value, not inflation-adjusted quantities. Comparing the October report with September sales therefore requires looking at category details alongside the headline figure. September figures provide a benchmark for comparison; they do not determine what spending recorded in October.
In a broader measure of spending, nominal U.S. personal consumption expenditures rose 0.5% in September, following a 0.9% increase in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. But real spending, after adjusting for prices, was unchanged in September, after rising 0.5% in August. The personal saving rate was 3.8% in September, while personal savings reached $911.1 billion, the bureau said. These data provide context for the trajectory of consumption, but they measure personal expenditures broader than retail sales alone. The retail report scheduled for November will provide a more recent reading of store and food services sales during October.
The wait for spending data followed a 0.4% rise in the seasonally adjusted consumer price index in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for all urban consumers stood at 337.511 points, up 0.2% for the month. The non-seasonally adjusted level differs from the seasonally adjusted monthly rate of change used in month-to-month comparisons. These figures add price context to the upcoming retail sales reading without directly measuring spending. The November consumer price index is scheduled for release on Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m., according to the bureau’s calendar.
A Conference Board survey showed an improvement in confidence during October, with the index rising 7.5 points to 91.7 from 84.2 in September. But the board said consumers planned to spend less on services and durable goods over the following six months. The board’s chief economist for global indicators attributed the decline in plans to higher prices, persistent inflation and eroding purchasing power. That puts the improvement in the confidence index alongside more cautious signals about future spending intentions. When released on Nov. 17, October retail sales data will provide another official indicator of buying activity during the month.
In the energy market, U.S. front-month RBOB gasoline futures settled at $2.6088 a gallon on Nov. 10, according to EL7 data. That value is a futures contract settlement, not the average price consumers pay at the pump. The next date on the consumer data calendar is Nov. 17, when the Census Bureau releases its estimate of October retail and food services sales. After that, the November consumer price index is due on Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. These releases will add new readings on spending and prices to the data available for September and October.