U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rises 12.55 basis points to 4.988%
Key Facts
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 12.55 basis points to 4.988% in the November 10 session, according to a Reuters report, after October data showed price pressures persisted. The two-year yield climbed 18.44 basis points to 4.731%, its biggest daily gain since tariff turmoil in April 2025. The bond moves followed a 0.4% monthly rise in the Consumer Price Index, compared with a 0.6% increase in September. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also exceeded economists’ estimates, reinforcing market bets on tighter monetary policy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said shelter accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase in the overall index.
The core index rose 0.3% in October, exceeding the Reuters median forecast of 0.2%. The index remained at 0.3% monthly in August, September and October, pointing to a sustained pace of core increases over the three months. By contrast, the shelter index rose 0.3% in October, down from 0.4% in September, while remaining the largest single contributor to the month’s price increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the shelter index rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the increase in the overall index. The food index rose 0.5%; food at home increased 0.4%, while food away from home climbed 0.5%.
Energy rose 0.7% in October after increasing 5.2% in September, while the gasoline index climbed 1.0% after a 9.1% jump in the previous month. These figures show a slower monthly pace of increases in energy and gasoline compared with September, while food and shelter prices continued to rise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish an annual inflation rate for October 2026. The bureau said it did not collect October 2025 survey data because of a lapse in government appropriations, making it impossible to calculate the 12-month change. As a result, the official comparison available for October focuses on the monthly change and its comparison with previous months.
Higher yields weighed on U.S. stocks in Tuesday’s session, with the S&P 500 losing about 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.99%, compared with 4.88% late in Monday’s session, according to the Associated Press. The 10-year yield is used as a benchmark for setting loan and mortgage rates for households and businesses, making its rise directly relevant to borrowing costs. In Wednesday morning trading on November 11, S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% and Dow futures gained 0.2%, despite the previous session’s stock declines. EL7 data also showed the U.S. Treasury bond instrument znusd closing at 106.25 on November 10, after 107.0625 on November 9.
On monetary policy expectations, an Axios report said the probability of a 50-basis-point rate hike in December reached 14% on the morning of November 10, after standing at zero the previous day. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said inflation was "much too high, well above the committee’s 2% target." The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for December 8 and 9, 2026, when policymakers will discuss the policy path in light of available data. Ahead of the meeting, the U.S. Producer Price Index for October is scheduled for release on November 13 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The release comes after consumer price data refocused markets on monthly pressures and the possibility of a more hawkish response from the Federal Reserve.