EL7.AI
BondsMedium•11 November 2026•
1 min read

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Surpasses 5% Following Hot Inflation Data

Key Facts

1The US 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% intraday following inflation figures that exceeded forecasts.
2The October Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month, while core CPI increased by 0.3%.
3Traders are pricing in a 14% probability of a 0.50 percentage point rate hike in December.

The US 10-year Treasury yield surpassed the 5% threshold intraday following inflation figures that exceeded market forecasts. SBS News reported that the October Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month, while the core CPI increased by 0.3%, triggering a sharp move in sovereign yields.

Traders are currently pricing in a 14% probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a 50-basis-point rate hike in December. This shift in yield levels follows the release of CPI data on November 10, 2026, which underscored persistent inflationary pressures and fueled expectations for tighter monetary policy under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Market participants are looking ahead to the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) on November 13, 2026, for further inflation insights. Additionally, scheduled speeches from Fed officials, including Bowman on November 13 and Jefferson on November 14, are expected to provide further clarity on the central bank's policy trajectory.

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