Brent settles at $91.49 as Washington weighs economic pressure on Iran
Key Facts
U.S. President Donald Trump kept the possibility of resuming strikes on Iran low, saying on November 9 that the war was "militarily over, in effect" after meeting Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington did not need major combat operations if the goal could be achieved through economic pressure. The remarks put sanctions and the naval blockade at the center of the stated U.S. approach, while military readiness continues. Trump said U.S. forces were "ready and loaded, and ready to go if anything changes." He did not refer to withdrawing forces deployed near Iran or ending the naval blockade.
Rubio said sanctions and the naval blockade are achieving their goals, and that the United States does not need to carry out military strikes as long as it achieves the same aim by economic means. He added that "the economic pain being imposed on Iran now is extraordinary, it is accumulating, and it is growing every day." This reflects Washington's stated bet on sustained pressure rather than major combat operations, while the military option remains available if circumstances change. Reuters reported that some of Trump's senior advisers favor economic pressure over strikes, including White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. It also reported that Vice President JD Vance favors reaching a deal.
Trump said the United States is maintaining the naval blockade to stop Iranian oil from flowing into the global market. In Paris, Rubio said Washington would continue to defend shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and that he had encouraged partners to take part in protecting global shipping. But he added that he had received no response from his G7 counterparts when he raised participation, saying: "I raised it, and I received no response." On the diplomatic front, the Associated Press reported that Qatari officials had presented proposals on Iran's nuclear program the previous week. Iran's stated demands before entering nuclear talks include ending the blockade of its ports, lifting sanctions, releasing assets, compensation for war damage, and ending hostilities in the region, including Israeli operations in Lebanon.
Trump said the United States had identified infrastructure targets, including 38 bridges, to strike if military action resumed. U.S. forces had carried out limited strikes on Iran, including targeting its air defenses, at least twice during the week before the agency's report on November 9. The remarks come as the war entered its eighth month and after Republicans lost both chambers of Congress to Democrats in the previous week's elections, which were shaped by voter discontent with the war. In the oil market, Brent futures fell 5.85% to $92.57 a barrel in settlement on November 9, after Trump backed away from the possibility of resuming strikes; the benchmark had fallen more than 16% in the previous week. On November 10, Brent futures settled at $91.49 a barrel, their lowest level since August 31 for a second consecutive day, as concerns about supply disruptions eased.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects most Middle Eastern production outside Iran to return to pre-conflict averages by mid-2027, while Iran's exports remain constrained during the forecast period. The agency also expects the average Brent spot price to fall to $77 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027 as global inventories recover. Against this backdrop, the average Brent spot price reached $124 a barrel in October, up $10 from September and the highest since July 2022 after adjusting for inflation. The agency links its forecast for lower prices to the recovery in inventories, while the naval blockade continues, which Washington has said is aimed at stopping Iranian oil flows. Supply developments and the path of economic pressure therefore remain factors in the picture laid out by U.S. officials.