StubHub raises sales outlook to $10.375 billion despite earnings and revenue miss
Key Facts
StubHub raised its 2026 gross merchandise sales forecast to a range of $10.175 billion to $10.375 billion after recording $2.62 billion in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, up 7% year over year. But results fell short of analysts’ estimates: adjusted earnings per share were $0.05, versus expectations of $0.08, while revenue reached $502.0 million, compared with an estimate of $516.2 million. The company reported results on Nov. 10, saying it kept its full-year adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization forecast at $400 million to $420 million. Chief Executive Eric Baker said the higher outlook reflected “positive third-quarter results and expected performance for the rest of the year.”
Gross merchandise sales totaled $2.62 billion, an increase of $181.6 million from $2.43 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue rose 7% to $502.0 million from $468.1 million a year earlier, equivalent to about 19% of gross merchandise sales. The figures reflect the growing value of transactions moving through the platform alongside growth in revenue generated from them. Baker said “consumers continue to prioritize live events” and that the company would remain focused on expanding access options for audiences. The company linked its higher annual forecast to the quarter’s results and the performance it expects for the rest of the year.
On profitability, the company reported net income of $33.6 million, compared with a net loss of $1,294.6 million in the third quarter of 2025. The prior-year loss included $1,405.2 million in stock-based compensation expenses, a significant item in comparing the two periods. Even so, the current quarter’s results fell short of market estimates on an adjusted earnings-per-share basis, at $0.05 versus expectations of $0.08. Revenue also came in below the $516.2 million estimate, despite annual growth. The company kept its annual adjusted earnings range unchanged at $400 million to $420 million as it raised its gross merchandise sales forecast.
StubHub shares closed at $5.85 on Nov. 9, according to EL7 data, then fell 1.6% in after-hours trading on Nov. 10 following the results announcement. The move came after gross merchandise sales exceeded the year-earlier level, while earnings per share and revenue missed analysts’ estimates. This does not include a Nov. 10 closing price for the stock; it identifies trading data available before the results announcement and the market’s immediate after-hours reaction. Reuters reported that the decline in extended trading occurred on Tuesday after the results were released.
On the balance sheet, the company had $1.2 billion in cash and equivalents on Sept. 30, against $0.8 billion in payments due to sellers. It had repaid $100 million of debt in July, then extended the maturity of its 3.5-year term loan and lowered borrowing rates in October. Net leverage stood at 2.5 times last-12-month adjusted earnings on Sept. 30, down 2.0 times from 4.5 times on Dec. 31, 2025. The improvement in leverage coincided with an unchanged adjusted earnings forecast for the year, despite a higher expected gross merchandise sales range.
In an announced management change, Michael Noonan is set to become chief financial officer on Jan. 4, 2027, succeeding Connie James. Noonan is currently chief financial officer at Tripadvisor and previously held finance roles at Noom and Booking Holdings. StubHub also said a call to discuss third-quarter results would be held on Nov. 10, 2026, at 5 p.m. Eastern time, with a live webcast and replay available on its investor relations website. Noonan’s start date comes after the company’s results and full-year guidance announcement.