Saudi Oil Output Returns to 90% of February Level as Supplies Recover in October
Key Facts
A Reuters survey showed that output from OPEC’s eleven members reached about 90% of its February level in October, before the war disrupted exports and production. The survey estimated the group’s February output at 25.48 million barrels a day, putting the supply recovery in the context of conditions before the disruption. In Saudi Arabia, data the kingdom reported to OPEC showed a sharp rise in production in October, according to a Bloomberg report published by Rigzone on November 11. But the organization’s secondary sources estimated Saudi output at 9.194 million barrels a day for the same month. OPEC uses these external estimates to assess compliance with production quotas, making the difference in methodology between the two figures essential to understanding them.
The gap between Saudi Arabia’s reported figure and the secondary estimate reflects a difference in measurement source, not a single unified production figure. Bloomberg said the secondary-source estimate put the kingdom’s output “well below its threshold of 9.194 million barrels a day.” The organization relies on external data when assessing countries’ compliance with quotas, while the Saudi figure represents data reported by the kingdom. The comparison comes as OPEC members’ output recovers a large part of its pre-disruption level. A Reuters survey estimated the eleven members’ combined February output at 25.48 million barrels a day and said October’s level was equivalent to 90% of that. October’s picture therefore combines a broad recovery in supplies with a continuing gap between the kingdom’s reported figure and the secondary-source estimate.
The recovery in Gulf production came amid attacks on oil tankers, Bloomberg said, noting also that Saudi Arabia had used an alternative pipeline to the Red Sea coast. The report said the kingdom had been able to use the alternative route “even as it came under attack.” This puts oil transport among the factors in the supply recovery, alongside disruption to shipping in the region. In a statement issued after its meeting in Riyadh in October, OPEC said disruptions to energy flows had pushed shipping and insurance costs to levels exceeding one-third of the commodity’s value. The organization added that these costs increase inflationary pressures. These operating and logistical conditions are part of the backdrop to the production recovery, without the sources attributing price movements to any single factor.
Brent futures fell about 21% during November and stood at $93 a barrel in the Bloomberg report published on November 11. The report cited the price movement in the context of rising Gulf production, but did not attribute the decline solely to the jump in Saudi output. This comes as supplies continue to recover from the disruptions to production and exports several months earlier. The Reuters estimate showed that output from OPEC’s eleven members in October reached 90% of the February level of 25.48 million barrels a day. The reading of the Saudi figure also remains tied to the gap between data reported by the kingdom and secondary-source estimates. Brent’s movement and the change in production are therefore concurrent developments in the market report, not a proven cause-and-effect relationship.
On future supplies, Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said the company aims to maximize production in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg quoted him as saying the company “aims to maximize production during the fourth quarter.” In a separate decision issued on November 1, OPEC said the seven participating countries kept required production levels for December at their September 2026 levels. OPEC+’s review of maximum production capacity is due to conclude in the days following the Bloomberg report. The report said the alliance would hold an online meeting on November 29 to discuss production targets for 2027. These dates provide a framework for reading October’s data as discussions approach on production capacity and subsequent targets.