Petrobras Raises Oil Output Forecast to 2.8 Million Barrels a Day, Announces 15.3 Billion Reais for Shareholders
Key Facts
Petrobras raised its 2026 oil output forecast to a range of 2.7 million to 2.8 million barrels a day and announced 15.3 billion reais in shareholder compensation tied to the third quarter, Reuters reported, citing the company. The announcement coincided with results showing quarterly net profit of 39.75 billion reais, up 21.5% year on year. But profit fell short of the 47.02 billion reais average analyst estimate, putting production and revenue growth against performance below expectations. The company also raised its expected investment range for its project portfolio under development to 24–25.5 billion dollars from 19.4 billion dollars previously. The changes reflect a push to expand output and accelerate projects, alongside higher capital spending requirements.
Petrobras averaged oil production of 2.83 million barrels a day in the third quarter, its third consecutive quarterly record, Reuters reported. The company raised its previous 2026 output estimate of 2.5 million barrels a day to a higher range after revising its operating forecasts. The company said the revision reflects operating efficiency gains and the accelerated startup of new platforms. It also included bringing forward the first oil from the P-79 platform in the Buzios field and faster progress on pre-salt projects. Company chief executive Magda Chambriard said Petrobras had again posted record oil and gas production in the third quarter, lifting its production curve to a historic level for the company. The quarterly average oil output shows production above the new annual forecast’s upper limit, while the outlook remains dependent on performance for the rest of the year.
Sales revenue rose 32.4% year on year to 169.35 billion reais in the third quarter, which the company attributed to higher oil prices. Brent crude averaged 97 dollars a barrel during the period, up more than 40% from the same quarter a year earlier, Reuters reported. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 34.3% to 85.82 billion reais. Even so, the measure fell short of London Stock Exchange Group estimates of 93.97 billion reais. Net profit excluding exceptional items was 47.9 billion reais, compared with reported net profit of 39.75 billion reais. Pressures on the result included a tariff review expense at TAG and legal liabilities, as well as lower currency-related gains as the real strengthened against the dollar.
Operating cash flow totaled 61.8 billion reais in the third quarter, while free cash flow reached 34 billion reais, Reuters reported. On the balance sheet, net debt fell 4.2% from the previous quarter to 57.8 billion dollars. The company approved 15.3 billion reais in shareholder compensation, equal to 1.18732774 reais per common and preferred share, as an advance payment against the company’s 2026 results. Petrobras’ policy provides for distributing 45% of free cash flow if gross debt is at or below the maximum set in its strategic plan, subject to the policy’s other conditions. The company invested 6.42 billion dollars in the third quarter, up 16.6% from the same period a year earlier, mainly in exploration and production and refining. The figures combine strong cash flows and a quarterly decline in debt on one hand with higher investment plans on the other.
Petrobras’ chief executive said average refinery utilization was 99% in the third quarter and that the company had posted record diesel output. Chambriard linked refinery operations at that level to the company’s role in ensuring Brazil’s energy security during the geopolitical crisis. But shares fell in trading on November 11: the company’s common stock was down 3.28% and preferred stock 3.05% at 10:55 Brasilia time, according to Infomoney. The platform reported that the market viewed lower distributions and higher spending as a disappointment. The immediate reaction puts the compensation announcement and spending plan at the center of investor scrutiny over the results’ effect on the company’s valuation. Attention is expected to focus on the scale of spending when the strategic plan for 2027–2031 is presented, which XP expected to take place at the end of November.