MSCI to Announce Review Today as Potential $2.8 Billion Outflows from Strategy Stock Are Estimated
Key Facts
MSCI plans to publish additions and deletions for its November equity index review after 11 p.m. Central European Time today, November 11, 2026, in an announcement that will determine whether Strategy stock remains in the relevant indexes. Reuters listed the company, alongside Japan's Metaplanet, as a potential deletion candidate under the new rules. The decision follows MSCI's adoption of a definition of non-operating companies that makes them ineligible for inclusion in its global investable market indexes. JPMorgan analysts estimated that exclusion could trigger outflows of about $2.8 billion from Strategy stock, according to CoinDesk. MSCI said changes resulting from the review will take effect at the close on November 30.
MSCI announced on November 4 when it would publish the review results, setting the announcement for after 11 p.m. Central European Time on November 11. This separates the date the names are disclosed from the date the changes take effect; no deletion or addition will become effective before the close on November 30. Strategy's inclusion on the candidate list does not mean exclusion has been decided; the pending decision is tied to the application of the eligibility standard adopted by MSCI. The announcement marks the first application of the new rules in the November review. MSCI said non-operating companies will be ineligible for inclusion in its global investable market indexes.
The rules rely on a financial screen for companies that fail the operating-assets test, with MSCI assessing five financial ratios to determine whether operating activity justifies a company's continued inclusion in the index. A security becomes ineligible if negative signals appear in four or more of the five ratios. But the rule includes a protection period for companies already in the index: they will be deleted only if they fail the screen in both of the two most recent annual filing periods. MSCI expanded the definition beyond investment funds and business development companies to include issuers of other companies with similar characteristics identified by new quantitative screens. Strategy's status therefore depends on the adopted eligibility criteria and how the two-period requirement applies to existing companies.
The potential deletion matters because passive funds and investors tracking indexes are required to hold shares in their constituent companies, making index membership a source of demand for the stock. Removing Strategy could therefore reduce those investors' holdings, and JPMorgan analysts estimated potential outflows at about $2.8 billion. CoinDesk attributed the estimate to the analysts and did not present it as an outflow that had already occurred. The potential impact of a deletion also concerns the company's shares, not its bitcoin reserves; funds selling shares does not in itself require Strategy to sell its coins. Strategy closed at $121.07 on November 10, according to EL7 data.
The company's large bitcoin holdings put its business model at the center of the debate over its operating status, while its disclosures point to different cash flows from its software business and its holdings of the currency. Strategy said in its filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that "holding bitcoin generates no cash flows." Software segment revenue was $125.4 million in the third quarter of 2026, down $3.3 million from the same period a year earlier. By contrast, the company held about 847,666 bitcoin on September 30, compared with about 672,500 on December 31, 2025. By October 25, its holdings had risen to about 848,517 bitcoin, according to the same filing.
The review process stems from a broader debate over companies focused on holding digital assets; MSCI postponed an earlier plan in January to exclude digital asset treasury companies, then opened a broader review of non-operating companies, according to Reuters. In October, Strategy stock fell 4.2% on Friday, October 16, after MSCI adopted the new rules, Reuters reported. Japan's Metaplanet was also listed as a potential deletion candidate, while SharpLink and other digital asset treasury companies appeared on a watchlist for possible removal. Attention now turns to the review list MSCI will publish after 11 p.m. Central European Time on November 11. If the results include changes, their announced effective date is the close on November 30.