EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMedium•11 November 2026•
2 min read

Moody’s Cuts France’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 0.2%, Below Domestic Institutions’ Estimates

Key Facts

1Moody’s forecast French growth of 0.2% in 2026, compared with 0.5% for the government, about 0.3% for the Bank of France and 0.4% for INSEE.
2Moody’s said political uncertainty, rising bond yields, fiscal constraints and tighter credit would weigh on activity.
3Gross fixed investment fell 0.6% in the third quarter, and exports fell 1.7%.
4Moody’s kept France’s rating at Aa3 with a negative outlook in October, taking no rating action.

Moody’s cut its forecast for French economic growth in 2026 to 0.2%, according to coverage published by MoneyVox, citing AFP, on November 11. The estimate is below the government’s 0.5% forecast, the Bank of France’s estimate of about 0.3% and the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies’ estimate of 0.4%. Moody’s had forecast growth of 1% in April, according to the same coverage. The cut puts the agency’s estimate below the other forecasts cited for France. Moody’s said, "Political uncertainty, rising bond yields, fiscal constraints and tighter credit conditions will continue to weigh on activity."

Third-quarter data show pressure on investment and foreign trade, alongside an improvement in household consumption. Gross fixed investment fell 0.6% quarter on quarter, after declining 0.5% in the second quarter, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. Exports fell 1.7% after rising 2.8% in the previous quarter. Net foreign trade subtracted 0.6 percentage points from output growth, after adding 0.6 points in the second quarter. By contrast, household consumption accelerated to 0.4% quarter on quarter from 0.2% in the second quarter.

This picture is consistent with the assessment by the High Council of Public Finance, which deemed the government’s 0.5% growth target for 2026 "difficult to achieve" and said 0.3% was "more likely." In an earlier assessment issued in July, the International Monetary Fund forecast French growth would slow from 0.9% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026, with a gradual recovery in 2027. The fund also said the general government deficit reached 5.1% of gross domestic product in 2025 and that the fiscal position strengthened during the year. Its assessment pointed to ongoing risks from political uncertainty. In October, Moody’s kept France’s rating at Aa3 with a negative outlook, taking no rating action, according to MoneyVox, citing AFP.

The European Central Bank will publish the seventh issue of its 2026 Economic Bulletin on November 12, according to the bank’s schedule. The institution says the bulletin presents the economic and monetary information that forms the basis for Governing Council decisions. The release is scheduled after Moody’s cut its French growth forecast on November 11. The International Monetary Fund forecast a gradual recovery in the French economy in 2027 in July. That forecast remains part of its earlier assessment, while the cited Moody’s estimates concern France’s growth in 2026.