Sodexam Warns Ivory Coast Cocoa Output Could Fall 21% to 25%
Key Facts
Ivory Coast’s meteorological agency, Sodexam, estimated that El Niño could reduce cocoa production in the country by about 21% to 25%, according to a report published by eNCA, citing Agence France-Presse. The range points to the possibility of a significant decline in the crop of the world’s largest cocoa producer, with the estimate tied to weather risks facing production. The agency attributed the risks to water deficits and rising temperatures. Sodexam said these conditions could cause young pods to wilt and fall before completing their growth, as well as lead to leaves dropping from trees. This links the agricultural impact of the phenomenon to the health of both the fruit and the trees.
Sodexam expects El Niño to bring less rain and higher temperatures, and to lengthen the dry season in Ivory Coast. These conditions could combine to increase pressure on cocoa trees as pods grow, according to the agency’s explanation of the risks from water shortages and heat. Sodexam described a potential impact on producers’ income, saying it could cause a "massive loss in farmers’ income." It also warned that state revenue from cocoa exports could fall if production declines. The risk could therefore affect farmers and the public treasury through a crop on which the country relies economically.
The risks carry global weight because Ivory Coast accounts for about 40% of the world’s cocoa production, according to the report published on November 10, 2026. This scale means any decline in Ivorian output would affect a country central to global supplies, although the report did not estimate any potential impact on prices. Cocoa production accounts for about 15% of Ivory Coast’s gross domestic product and supports nearly five million people. Together, these figures reflect the crop’s importance to global trade, its place in the domestic economy and the livelihoods of a broad segment of the population. Sodexam’s warnings therefore focus on production, farmers’ income and export revenues.
El Niño was expected to peak in December, according to the report, while the effects of extreme heat, floods and drought on people are expected to continue through 2027 and beyond. This timeline places climate risks on a horizon extending beyond the expected peak, with human impacts associated with these conditions continuing. In response to weather fluctuations, researchers in Ivory Coast are working to develop cocoa varieties that require less water, the report said. The work aims to reduce the trees’ water needs amid potential drought conditions. The report did not specify when these varieties would be released or how much they were expected to contribute to production.
Data for the 2024/25 season show a different backdrop to the market pressures of the previous season: the International Cocoa Organization estimated a global surplus of 48 thousand tons, following a deficit of 492 thousand tons in the 2023/24 season. In Ivory Coast, estimated production was 1.681 million tons in the 2024/25 season, up 0.4% from the previous season, according to the organization’s annual report. U.S. cocoa futures closed at $4,937 per ton on November 10, down 5.11% during the session, according to Investing.com data. The production and supply figures refer to the 2024/25 season, while the futures data capture trading in the November 10 session. The report does not link these historical figures to the El Niño estimate for Ivory Coast’s crop.
The Ivorian government announced in January 2026 that it would buy unsold cocoa stocks to support continued exports and ensure farmers received their payments. The farmers’ union at the time estimated the unsold stocks at about 700 thousand tons, according to the Associated Press. This provides context on the pressures facing crop marketing and producer payments before Sodexam’s report on weather risks. The current El Niño estimate remains a range for a potential decline in production, while the accompanying economic warning focuses on farmers’ income and state revenue. The measure cited in the report to address weather fluctuations remains the development of varieties that require less water.