Iran’s Gas Shortfall Rises to 430 Million Cubic Metres as Winter Supply Cuts Loom

Key Facts

Iran’s government warned on November 11 that the domestic gas shortage could worsen this winter, estimating a supply deficit of about 430 million cubic metres in 2026, compared with about 300 million cubic metres in previous years. Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said rising consumption could lead to gas cuts across the country, including in Tehran. The warning comes after the war damaged gas-processing facilities, Reuters reported, citing Iranian officials. The comparison shows the estimated deficit this year is larger than its approximate level in previous years. Mohajerani said: "If consumption rises, gas outages could occur across the country, including in Tehran."

Saeed Tavakoli, managing director of the National Iranian Gas Company, said 4 processing facilities were damaged in the first phase of the conflict early this year. The damage initially reduced capacity by about 230 million cubic metres, Tavakoli said. About 100 million cubic metres of that capacity had been restored by November 11, 2026, leaving a gap between the initial reduction and the amount recovered. These figures link the damage to processing facilities with the deficit estimate announced by Mohajerani. The warning did not specify a separate impact on the distribution network or on particular sectors.

The National Iranian Gas Company had warned the previous week of possible supply difficulties during the winter of 2026-2027 in 11 of Iran’s 31 provinces. It named Mazandaran on the Caspian Sea coast, Golestan and North Khorasan near the border with Turkmenistan among the areas most at risk. That warning sets out the geographic scope of supply risks, while Mohajerani said possible cuts could affect the whole country, including the capital. The company did not estimate how much gas those provinces might lack. The regional and national warnings come as damaged capacity is still being partly restored.

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf urged Iranians on Sunday to reduce gas consumption by 10% before winter. The appeal aims to curb consumption in response to the deficit the government estimated at about 430 million cubic metres this year. Iran’s official news agency also reported on Monday that First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said gas prices could rise if supply shortages led to excessive consumption. Aref linked the possibility of higher prices to continued supply shortages as consumption rises, without announcing the size or timing of any increase. The official response combines a call to conserve with a warning that prices could be adjusted if supplies are insufficient.

U.S. Energy Information Administration data provide context on the growth of Iranian gas production over the decade through 2022, which rose 58% during that period. Production growth came alongside continuing challenges in meeting demand, the agency said. The Associated Press reported that the South Pars field supplies most of Iran’s domestic needs. The agency also reported that gas supply outages have previously caused electricity shortages in the country, despite Iran’s large energy reserves. This context places the current warning against a backdrop of heavy domestic reliance on gas and past instances in which supply outages affected electricity.