Ghana Announces $3.5 Billion in Oil Pledges as Output Expected to Fall in 2026
Key Facts
Ghana’s presidency announced new investment pledges worth $3.5 billion for the oil sector on June 26, 2026, during a groundbreaking ceremony for the second phase of the Sentuo refinery expansion in Tema. The presidency said the pledges aim to support oil production and linked them to an effort to reverse a six-year decline. The documented announcement dates to June, and the verified facts contain no information confirming a new announcement of this amount on November 10. The investments were divided between partners in two major offshore projects, Jubilee and OCTP. The presidency described the amount as new pledges, while specifying different uses for each project.
The plan allocated $2 billion to Jubilee field partners to drill up to 20 new wells, according to the presidency. This part of the pledges sets a specific operational target by tying the funding to additional drilling at the field. The presidency also said Jubilee production rose from 60,000 to 85,000 barrels per day, compared with the baseline it cited in June 2026. It said measurable gains were also recorded at the TEN and Sankofa fields, without specifying production figures for them. Ghana is on course to record a net increase in crude output for the first time in several years, it said. These figures reflect the government’s account of improvements already under way at some fields alongside new drilling plans.
A total of $1.5 billion was directed to OCTP project partners for field development and exploration, according to the presidency’s official account. This completes the portion allocated to Jubilee within the $3.5 billion in pledges. Government moves related to the sector included beginning the marketing process for the Afina discovery, as well as ratifying a new petroleum agreement in the offshore Tano West Basin, according to the Ghana Information Services Department. Alongside upstream investment, the department said the Tema Oil Refinery completed its first major comprehensive maintenance in four years and resumed crude processing. It also said the second phase of the Sentuo expansion will increase total refining capacity from 40,000 to 100,000 barrels per day. These projects cover distinct activities, including field development, exploration, crude processing and refining.
Projections from the Ghana Energy Commission point to continued pressure on production in 2026, despite the pledges announced by the government in June. The commission forecast a 6.7% decline in total crude production, from an estimated 37.33 million barrels in 2025 to about 34.83 million barrels in 2026. The projections were based on work plans submitted by oil companies to the Petroleum Commission. Jubilee production is expected to fall from 22.0 million barrels in 2025 to 21.0 million in 2026, a decline of about 4.5%, it said. It also forecast that output at the TEN field would fall from 5.8 million barrels to 4.4 million, a drop of about 23.7%. These estimates put the goal of reversing the decline to a test of actual production during the year.
On drilling, the Petroleum Commission said the J75 well at Jubilee, the first of the five-well Kosmos campaign in 2026, was successfully drilled. The commission said the well encountered about 40 metres of net oil pay. The well was expected to come online near the end of the first quarter, according to the commission’s update published in February 2026. This offers an interim indicator of progress in the announced drilling campaign, while annual production forecasts remain separate from well results and development plans. The next step in the available data is to track expected 2026 production alongside progress on the Jubilee campaign, which includes five wells.