U.S. inflation rose 0.4% in October, topping forecasts amid Goolsbee warning
Key Facts
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, after a 0.6% increase in September, exceeding the 0.3% forecast by economists polled by Reuters. The report came as Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, warned that inflation had begun rising in some services unlikely to be driven by oil prices or tariffs. Goolsbee said on November 9 that "Inflation is starting to rise in areas that maybe don't go back to oil prices and tariffs, like a range of services." He took part that day in a public conversation organized by the Leadership Greater Chicago event in Chicago. October's figures highlight continued monthly price increases, despite a slowdown in the overall index from September.
The consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in October, the same increase recorded in both September and August. Services excluding energy rose 0.3% in October, compared with a 0.4% increase in September, meaning prices continued to rise but at a slower pace. By contrast, the overall index posted a monthly increase greater than Reuters' 0.3% forecast. These readings offer a mixed picture, with some components moderating while prices in others continued to rise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish the annual inflation rate for October because last year's government shutdown prevented the collection of consumer price data for that month, which was needed for the year-over-year comparison.
Shelter remained a major contributor to the increase in the overall index, with its index rising 0.3% in October and accounting for more than 30% of the monthly increase in all items. The food index rose 0.5% in the same month. The energy index increased 0.7% in October, after jumping 5.2% in September. These components reflect multiple sources of monthly increases, from shelter and food to energy, while services excluding energy were also not free of price pressures. Goolsbee had said that increases appearing in services unlikely to be linked to oil or tariffs raised the question of inflation driven by other factors. In October, he described the inflation data as discouraging and said price increases driven by excessive demand tied to the construction of AI data centers would be more concerning, adding: "If that's due to excess demand, and it's the building of AI data centers, that's a more concerning issue, and we'll have to deal with it."
U.S. stocks fell in Tuesday's session on November 10 following the inflation report; the S&P 500 lost about 0.4%, the Nasdaq fell 0.7%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.3%. The moves came on the day the data showed the consumer price index rising 0.4%, above Reuters' 0.3% forecast. Commenting on potential risks to the monetary policy path, an economist at BofA Securities said holding rates steady in October may have been a policy mistake, and that he sees "a rising risk that the Fed will have to hike again in January rather than March." That remains the economist's assessment, not an announcement of a Federal Reserve decision. The October producer price report was also scheduled for the following Friday, data that could affect the inflation estimates tracked by the market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its November consumer price index report on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The report will follow the absence of an annual inflation reading for October, as the previous year's October data needed for comparison are unavailable. The monthly figures published in October provide a basis for reading price trends across components, including the core index, services, shelter, food and energy. The next date for the prices report is the official release information listed in the bureau's schedule. October's figures point to a slowdown in the overall index from September, while remaining above the forecasts of economists polled by Reuters.