Yamal imports to EU rise 10.1% ahead of 2027 Russian gas ban
Key Facts
EU ports received 11.39 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas from Russia’s Yamal project between January and August 2026, up 10.1% from the same period a year earlier, according to Urgewald. The figures highlight the continued flow of Russian gas into the European market as the Jan. 1, 2027 deadline for a full ban on long-term contracts approaches. The group estimated EU payments to the project at about 7.28 billion euros through Sept. 5, 2026. That estimate exceeded the 7.2 billion euros Urgewald estimated for all of 2025. The data put imports and payments on an upward path in 2026 as the legal deadline for ending long-term contracts draws closer.
Urgewald said volumes arriving at EU ports rose to 11.39 million tonnes in the first eight months of 2026, compared with the same period in 2025. The annual increase was 10.1%, according to the group. The figure covers LNG from the Yamal project, one of the Russian supply sources tracked in its data. The payment estimate, meanwhile, runs through Sept. 5, so it does not match the import measurement period, which ends in August. The group valued those payments at 7.28 billion euros, exceeding its estimate of 7.2 billion euros for all of 2025.
The volume and value figures have different implications because the payment estimate is not based on confirmed payment records, but on a calculation methodology published by Urgewald. The group multiplies tonnes of shipments delivered to the EU by a conversion factor of 13.7 megawatt-hours per tonne, then by the monthly benchmark price for European gas, TTF. The resulting value estimate is therefore tied to shipment volumes and the benchmark price used for each month. This methodology explains how the group calculated the value it reported through Sept. 5, while the figure remains an estimate. It also helps clarify the difference between import data reported in tonnes and the cash value calculation linked to market prices.
The EU’s share of Yamal exports also changed as imports rose, according to Urgewald. It increased from 78.2% in 2025 to 88.9% in 2026 through the date of the group’s report. That represents an increase of 10.7 percentage points. It indicates that a larger share of the project’s exports went to the EU during the period covered by the report. The comparison between the two percentages provides context for the increase in European imports, alongside the measurement in tonnes.
Separate data cited by Reuters from the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) showed Russian pipeline gas imports rising 7% year on year from January to May 2026. Russian LNG imports also rose 11% over the same period, according to Reuters via MarketScreener. These figures cover Russian gas overall, not Yamal shipments alone, and their measurement period ends in May. The increase in Russian LNG imports is consistent with the rise in Yamal volumes in the following months, but the comparisons differ in scope and period. ACER’s data present pipeline and LNG imports together for the first five months of the year.
In a separate estimate cited by Reuters, the value of EU purchases of LNG from Yamal reached about 5.96 billion euros between January and June 2026, according to Urgewald. France, Belgium and Spain were the largest delivery destinations, the same source said. This estimate covers the first half of the year, while Urgewald’s estimate of 7.28 billion euros runs through Sept. 5. The delivery destinations add to the picture of gas flows into the European market, while the difference in periods explains why the two estimates do not match. The figures come amid the EU’s ban schedule, which ends long-term contracts on Jan. 1, 2027, after a ban on short-term contracts began in April 2026.