EIA Forecasts Brent Average of $97.44 a Barrel in 2026
Key Facts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration issued its monthly short-term outlook on November 10, putting the average Brent crude price at $97.44 a barrel in 2026 and $85.78 in 2027. The outlook was completed on November 5, according to the agency’s data. The agency said it expects Brent to stay near $100 a barrel for the rest of this year. It then expects prices to decline gradually as global inventories build next year. The annual path puts the average higher in 2026 than in 2027, while the fourth-quarter 2027 forecast reflects a level of $77 a barrel. The outlook therefore combines persistently high near-term prices with the possibility of a later easing as supplies improve.
The agency attributed the rise in crude prices during October to declines in global inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf, shipping capacity constraints and higher transport costs. In its report, it said these factors had "tightened supplies." The spot Brent price averaged $124 a barrel in October, up $10 from September and, adjusted for inflation, its highest level since July 2022. Meanwhile, average crude production shut-ins in the Middle East fell to 2.5 million barrels a day in October, from a peak of 10.9 million barrels a day in May. These figures show that easing shut-ins did not end the market pressures the agency linked to declining inventories and shipping risks. U.S. commercial crude inventories stood at 410 million barrels at the end of October, the lowest end-October level since 2014.
Total global oil inventories fell by an average of 1.2 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2026, but the agency expects them to start building in the fourth quarter. The expected shift comes as it forecasts Brent to remain near $100 a barrel for the rest of the year. Over the first half of 2027, the agency expects global inventories to rise by 3.5 million barrels a day. It said the accumulation would push Brent below $90 a barrel in the second quarter of 2027. It also expects the average price to fall to $77 in the fourth quarter of that year. The forecasts link the price path to changes in the balance between supply and inventories, after inventories failed to keep pace with demand in the third quarter.
On the demand side, the agency said global consumption of liquid fuels would fall by 2.0 million barrels a day in 2026. It noted that lower consumption in China and the Middle East would help limit the impact of supply shortfalls on prices. As for U.S. production, it expects crude output to reach a record 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027, while net imports gradually increase. In the market, Brent futures rose 0.78% to $92.20 a barrel at 0119 GMT on November 11, after oil prices fell to a two-month low in the previous session. A Reuters report attributed the market move to investors weighing hopes for de-escalation in the Iran war against concerns that attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would continue. The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its next short-term outlook on December 8, 2026.