Deutsche Bank Raises SpaceX’s 2028 Revenue Estimate by $18.7 Billion
Key Facts
Deutsche Bank raised its estimate for SpaceX revenue in 2028 by $18.7 billion to $315.3 billion, according to a report published by Yahoo Finance on November 10, 2026, in a revision reflecting its bet on growth in cloud computing and demand for computing power. Analyst Edison Yu also raised his estimate for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in the same year by $18 billion to $237.1 billion. The bank maintained its Buy rating on the stock and its $250 price target. The thesis behind the revision centers on expectations that computing capacity will remain constrained and rental prices will rise as data-center construction falls behind. But Elon Musk raised the opposite possibility, saying SpaceX revenue would fall if computing became abundant and cheap.
Deutsche Bank attributes its forecast to political pressures that could slow data-center construction after the elections, with the effects likely to be concentrated in 2028. The report said this slowdown could keep computing capacity scarce and rental prices high for longer, supporting the company’s revenue from selling computing power. The view comes as data-center projects face local opposition; the report noted that voters backed limits on their development in 40 of 41 local ballot measures across 10 states during the previous week. The bank links the impact of these restrictions to the infrastructure construction schedule, rather than simply to growth in demand for AI services. Its assumption remains exposed to the possibility that actual capacity expansion follows a different path from expectations.
The firm expects cloud computing to account for more than half of SpaceX revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026, making capacity availability and pricing influential factors in its estimates. Yahoo Finance says the company is already leasing computing capacity to Alphabet and Anthropic. In its disclosure for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, SpaceX said revenue increased by $8.999 billion, or 161.4%, compared with the same period in 2025. The company attributed $6.747 billion of the increase to its SI segment, $2.151 billion to its connectivity segment and $101 million to its space segment. Within SI, solutions and infrastructure revenue rose by $6.663 billion, and the company recorded $608 million in revenue from Cursor following the acquisition.
SpaceX said cloud-computing services for customers began in the second quarter of 2026, while SI revenue growth was tied to infrastructure contracts and increased revenue following the acquisition of Cursor. In the first nine months of 2026, revenue increased by $13.369 billion, or 97.5%, compared with the same period a year earlier. Research and development expenses rose by $2.305 billion, or 100.6%, in the third quarter, with the company attributing part of the increase to higher infrastructure and cloud-computing costs as it expanded its data centers. According to the Associated Press, the company posted a $4.4 billion profit, or 35 cents per share, and revenue of $14.6 billion for the quarter ended in September, up 161%. The news agency reported that AI became the largest business by revenue during the quarter, while Starlink remained the biggest profit generator.
Market data cited in the report show that SpaceX shares closed at $143.09 on November 10, 2026, while Deutsche Bank shares closed at $37.10 in the same session. The Associated Press had reported that SpaceX shares rose 7.5% in after-hours trading following the quarterly results. The company’s capital expenditure reached $19.6 billion in the third quarter, and it forecast spending of between $35 billion and $40 billion in the fourth quarter. On the terms of computing contracts, Deutsche Bank noted that SpaceX could give customers 90 days’ notice before terminating existing contracts and seek higher prices in new agreements. The bank did not include this possibility in its earnings forecasts, leaving it as an additional factor that could affect its estimates if it materializes.
In its disclosure, SpaceX said its board had formed a special committee to evaluate a possible merger with Tesla, adding that no decision had been made on any potential merger. In Deutsche Bank’s estimates, the outcome remains tied to a balance between growth in the cloud business and demand for computing on one hand, and the pace of data-center and new-capacity additions on the other. The forecast that cloud will account for more than half of revenue in the fourth quarter puts this issue at the center of the company’s near-term performance. By contrast, Musk’s warning indicates that abundant computing power and lower costs could pressure revenue. The two views therefore differ on the impact of infrastructure expansion: scarce capacity could support pricing, while abundance and lower prices could limit returns.