China’s Trade Surplus Falls to $105.3 Billion as Imports Surge in October
Key Facts
China’s trade surplus fell to $105.3 billion in October from $133.5 billion in September, as import growth accelerated to 41.6% and exports rose 35.2% year over year, according to the Associated Press. The figures show trade expanding in both directions during the month, with imports rising faster than exports. In separate official data, the National Bureau of Statistics said the consumer price index rose 0.7% year over year in October. Inflation data were published on November 9, while trade data were announced on November 10. Together, the indicators put trade and prices at the forefront of China’s available economic data for October.
Chinese imports rose 41.6% from October a year earlier, while exports increased 35.2%, according to figures reported by the Associated Press. Faster import growth helped narrow the monthly surplus to $105.3 billion, compared with $133.5 billion in September. China nevertheless recorded a cumulative trade surplus of $1.04 trillion in the first ten months of 2026. That figure puts the January-to-October total in the context of the monthly surplus, which fell from the previous month’s level. The agency attributed part of October’s import surge to a recovery in crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf.
In local currency terms, total imports and exports reached 44.81 trillion yuan from January to October, up 20% from the same period last year, according to China’s State Council, citing the General Administration of Customs. Imports rose 23.6% over the period, while exports increased 17.6%. The ten-month data show that overall trade growth was accompanied by faster growth in imports than exports, as was the case in October. An official at the General Administration of Customs said imports from more than 150 countries and regions grew during the period. These cumulative figures extend beyond the single-month data, describing the course of trade from the start of the year through October.
On the prices front, China’s consumer price index was unchanged month over month in October, despite rising 0.7% from the same month a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. In the first ten months of 2026, consumer prices rose 0.9% year over year. October’s annual increase came as non-food prices rose 1.5%, while food prices fell 2.9%. The gap highlights the different price trends in the two groups within the month’s inflation reading. The zero monthly change means the index recorded neither an increase nor a decrease from September.
The price data come as the bond market operates under a tax regime based on exemptions set out in law and official policies. China’s Individual Income Tax Law exempts interest on treasury bonds and state-issued financial bonds from individual income tax, according to the State Taxation Administration. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration also extended the exemption for foreign institutions from corporate income tax and value-added tax on bond interest through December 31, 2027. The extension applies from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, according to China’s State Council. These provisions provide an existing tax backdrop for bonds, while the claim in the draft about a survey of banks or a possible tax on government bond interest could not be verified.
The yield on China’s 10-year government bond was 1.5965% on November 10, according to the yield curve compiled by China Central Depository & Clearing Co. Data from China’s Foreign Exchange Trade System reported a yield of 1.5880% on the same day, compared with 1.5807% on November 9. Both readings reflect a daily increase in the measure reported by each series, but they differ in the value recorded on November 10. In the November issue of electronic savings bonds, the Ministry of Finance set the annual yield at 1.63% for three years and 1.7% for five years. The two issues went on sale on November 10 and will remain available through November 19, 2026.