U.S. October Inflation Rises 0.4% Month on Month; Dollar Closes at 102.175
Key Facts
The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% in October 2026 on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, following a 0.6% increase in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The actual increase exceeded the expectations of economists surveyed by Reuters, who had forecast a 0.3% rise during the month. But the report did not include the annual rate of change for most price indexes in October. The bureau said October 2025 data were not collected because of a lapse in government funding, preventing it from calculating the 12-month comparison.
The index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in October, the same monthly increase recorded in August and September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core index’s steady pace over three months points to continued, similar monthly increases in the prices it excludes from food and energy. Among the components, the shelter index rose 0.3% in October and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase in the headline index. The food index also rose 0.5%, while the energy index increased 0.7% in the same month. These figures put shelter at the forefront of the contributions cited in the report, alongside monthly increases in food and energy.
For annual comparison, consumer price inflation was 3.7% in September, according to Reuters, before an annual October reading could not be published because October 2025 data were unavailable. A former Federal Reserve official estimated, in unofficial estimates cited by the Associated Press, that consumer prices rose 4% year on year in October and core inflation was 2.8%. These figures remain estimates attributed to the former official and are not official readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They therefore differ from the report’s official data, which measure October’s monthly change, and do not replace the annual comparison the bureau did not publish. The 3.7% figure also applies to September and does not represent October’s rate.
In currency markets, the dollar index closed at 102.175 on November 10, compared with a close of 101.54 the previous day, according to EL7 data. In later coverage that day, Reuters said the index rose 0.51% to 102.20 after the inflation data were released. The euro fell 0.48% to $1.117, while the dollar rose 0.47% to 158.66 yen, according to the same report. EL7 data show that the euro-dollar pair closed at 1.11628 on November 10, compared with 1.12238 on November 9. The yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note also rose 19.07 basis points to 4.738%, a move Reuters linked to rising expectations of tighter monetary policy.
On interest-rate expectations, Reuters reported that the CME FedWatch tool showed markets pricing in an 89% probability of a rate hike at the December meeting. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said a 50-basis-point increase should be on the table for discussion at that meeting if inflation data were in line with the previous two months. The statement puts the larger increase among the options Waller said should be discussed, while the tool’s pricing reflects market expectations for the next meeting. October’s report does not include an official annual reading that would allow a direct comparison with the previous year’s annual rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish its November Consumer Price Index report on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.