Nvidia Revenue Forecast to Rise 90.9% to $108.84 Billion in Third Quarter
Key Facts
Nvidia will report results on November 17 for the third quarter of its fiscal 2027, which ended October 25, with revenue expected to reach $108.84 billion and earnings per share of $2.47. MarketPulse cited consensus estimates for revenue to rise 90.9% year over year and earnings per share to increase 90%. The forecasts put the company to a fresh test of the pace of demand for AI chips, as investors await what it says about the next quarter and profit margins. MarketPulse said fourth-quarter guidance and profit margins would be among the key catalysts tied to the results. Consensus estimates are not realized results; the company will release its figures and outlook on the scheduled announcement date.
Analysts expect quarterly revenue of $108.84 billion, above the guidance Nvidia issued after its second-quarter results of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. The company also forecast a gross margin of 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points, and included no revenue from data-center computing in China in its outlook. That means the company’s third-quarter guidance provides a published benchmark against which to compare results, while fourth-quarter guidance will be a focus for investors after the figures are released. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027, Nvidia reported data-center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117% from the same period a year earlier. Its gross margin rose to 75.0% from 72.4% a year earlier, which the company attributed to a better mix of Blackwell Ultra products.
The results date follows a sharp decline in the stock in recent sessions. It closed at $168.89 on November 10, compared with a close of $178.67 on November 9 and $186.64 on November 6, according to EL7 data. The stock had fallen 4.3% in the November 9 session, wiping out about $190 billion in market value, according to MarketPulse. The Associated Press said the stock continued to fall the following day, closing Tuesday down about 5.5%. This coincided with reports of an investigation into allegations that CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort, allegations that prompted the board to open an independent review.
Nvidia’s board announced an independent investigation after reports that Huang had been the target of a foreign intelligence effort, saying a committee of independent directors would oversee the review with assistance from outside legal counsel. The board said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets had been compromised, and that Huang had expressed support for the investigation and a willingness to cooperate. The board said the investigation would examine all available information, without announcing that a breach or wrongdoing had occurred. In a statement published on November 10, the board said the independent directors had retained John H. Kim, the former acting U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, and his firm. The investigation remains separate from the operational questions to be addressed in the results, but adds a governance development to the period ahead of a widely followed announcement.
The company also faces a shareholder class-action lawsuit alleging that Nvidia misled investors about Huang’s relationship with Alice Huang and related national-security implications. These are allegations in the complaint, not facts established by a court. The Associated Press reported that the complaint seeks unspecified damages and a jury trial, and proposes a class that would include buyers of Nvidia shares between October 9, 2025 and November 8, 2026. The lawsuit adds a legal track to the investigation opened by the board, while the available evidence does not include a ruling on the complaint’s allegations. This comes alongside investors’ focus on whether AI companies’ spending on infrastructure will continue to support purchases of Nvidia chips.
Among the concerns cited by MarketPulse is circular financing in AI infrastructure, in which Nvidia invests in companies that later buy its chips, supports their financing, or guarantees their obligations. The question centers on how closely financing is linked to demand for products, while these concerns alone do not establish that sales lack underlying demand. MarketPulse also cited Nvidia’s weight in the Nasdaq 100, which stood at 8.18% on October 20, and estimated that a 5% move in the stock could shift the index by about 0.41 percentage points, all else being equal. That weighting makes the company’s results and guidance relevant beyond its own stock, given their potential effect on the index. This backdrop remains separate from the figures the company will report for the quarter ended October 25.
In the options market, the implied move priced for Nvidia shares was about ±10.6% on November 10 around the results date, exceeding the ten-year average maximum move on an earnings-announcement day of ±7.8%, according to MarketPulse. The figure reflects the size of the move priced into options contracts, not a confirmed direction up or down. On the technical chart, MarketPulse described the outlook for the stock as negative below $201.66 and said a break below $152.90 could open the way to a test of $129.16. These are potential technical-analysis levels, not confirmed support or a forecast outcome. Nvidia will report results on November 17, with the market focused on revenue, profit margins and fourth-quarter guidance.