Dollar Closes at 159.703 Yen as U.S. Core Inflation Holds at 0.3%
Key Facts
The dollar closed at 159.703 yen on November 11, compared with 158.731 yen the previous day, according to EL7 data, while U.S. data showed a slowdown in the monthly increase in headline consumer prices. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the index rose 0.4% in October, after a 0.6% increase in September. By contrast, the index excluding food and energy continued to rise 0.3% for a third consecutive month. The reading puts the price path and U.S. interest rate outlook among the main factors in focus for the dollar-yen pair. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had said he leaned toward supporting a rate increase at the December meeting if the data came in as he expected.
Details of the report showed divergent trends among inflation components. The shelter index rose 0.3% in October and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase in the overall index, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The food index rose 0.5%, while the energy index increased 0.7%, after rising 5.2% in September. Shelter’s contribution to the monthly increase, alongside gains in food and energy, is among the components of the inflation reading used by monetary policymakers. The core index posted the same monthly increase of 0.3% in August, September and October.
Gasoline rose 1.0% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the index fell 0.7% on an unadjusted basis in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On an unadjusted year-over-year basis, the gasoline index rose 37.4% from October 2025. These comparisons vary according to the measurement period and data adjustment method; a seasonally adjusted monthly increase does not mean prices rose in every published month-over-month comparison. The figures reflect continued divergence among price components, as declines in the monthly increase in headline inflation accompanied gains in the food and energy indexes in October. The bureau said a lapse in appropriations prevented it from collecting survey data for October 2025, so it was unable to publish indexes for that month for most series.
In remarks on the next policy move, Waller said he leaned toward supporting a 25-basis-point increase at the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting. He added that a core reading of 0.3% or higher, if similar to the readings of the previous two months, would make an increase of 50 basis points an option that should be considered. Waller thus tied the size of a potential increase to inflation data the Bureau of Labor Statistics was releasing that day, rather than making a prior commitment to a larger move. The committee is scheduled to meet on December 8 and 9, with a news conference on December 9. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also set November 13 at 08:30 a.m. Eastern time for the release of October’s producer price index.
U.S. stock indexes fell in Tuesday’s session after the inflation data, according to the Associated Press. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 157 points, or 0.3%. The agency said bond yields rose after traders raised their expectations for further rate increases. In the same session, Lennar shares fell 5.4%, while D.R. Horton and PulteGroup shares declined 3.8% and 3.9%, respectively, as yields climbed. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $91.49 a barrel on Tuesday, after having topped $112 a barrel in early November.