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Macro EconomyMedium•10 November 2026•
4 min read

U.S. Treasury Yields Jump to 4.98% as Stocks Fall After Inflation Data

Key Facts

1The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.98% from 4.88% late in Monday’s trading.
2The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, after increasing 0.6% in September.
3By 10 a.m. Eastern time, the S&P 500 was down 0.2%, the Dow Jones 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.1%.
4The shelter index rose 0.3% in October, accounting for more than 30% of the monthly increase in the all-items index.
5The October Producer Price Index is scheduled for release on November 13 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

The U.S. Labor Department released October consumer price data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on November 10, after which U.S. stocks fell and Treasury yields rose, according to the Associated Press. The agency said the move reflected growing trader expectations that inflation would persist and the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates. By 10 a.m. Eastern time, the S&P 500 was down 0.2%. The Dow Jones fell 212 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.1% at the same time. The indexes’ losses followed a report showing that the monthly increase in the consumer price index slowed compared with September, while both headline and core inflation readings remained one-tenth of a percentage point above market expectations, according to the Associated Press.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, seasonally adjusted, rose 0.4% in October, following a 0.6% increase in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The monthly increase was therefore slower than the previous month’s pace, although the Associated Press said headline and core inflation each exceeded market expectations by one-tenth of a percentage point. The index stood at 337.511, based on 1982–84, according to the bureau. Before seasonal adjustment, the index rose 0.2% over the month. The contrast between a slowdown from September and a reading above expectations puts October’s data at the center of market attention on the path of prices and interest rates.

Shelter was the largest identified contributor to the monthly increase: its index rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of October’s increase in the all-items index, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The food index rose 0.5%, with food at home up 0.4% and food away from home up 0.5%. The energy index rose 0.7% in October, after a larger 5.2% increase in September. The Associated Press reported that gasoline prices rose 1% from September to October, while electricity prices increased 0.9%, their largest increase since April. Grocery prices also rose 0.4%, linking the report’s details to the costs of goods and services facing households.

The reaction extended to the bond market as stocks fell: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.98%, from 4.88% late in Monday’s trading, according to the Associated Press. The agency said the rise in the yield reflected increased trader expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. That followed a period of declines in the yield since early October, when it topped 5.30%, according to the same report. In the energy market, Brent crude fell 2.4% to $90.32 a barrel on November 10. Nvidia shares also fell 3.1%, making them the biggest drag on the S&P 500 during the session, according to the Associated Press.

In the debate over the Fed’s next move, the Associated Press quoted Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller as saying that a half-percentage-point rate hike at the December meeting was “a possibility,” twice the usual quarter-point increase. The possibility comes as markets assess how long price pressures may persist, after headline and core inflation remained one-tenth of a percentage point above market expectations, according to the agency. The monthly increase in the price index slowed to 0.4% in October from 0.6% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Waller’s remarks do not constitute an announced decision on the December meeting, but they put the possibility of a larger increase into the discussion reported by the agency. The 10-year yield, which reached 4.98% on November 10, remains an indicator of shifting trader rate expectations, as the report described.

Attention now turns to the October Producer Price Index, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release on November 13 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The next Consumer Price Index, for November, is due on December 10 at the same time, according to the bureau’s schedule. These dates mark the next two points for tracking price data after October’s report and the market reaction to it. In the October report, shelter prices rose 0.3% and energy prices increased 0.7% month over month, while food rose 0.5%, according to the bureau. The November reading will be the next consumer price report on the published release schedule.