US One-Year Inflation Swap Falls Below 2% on Lower Energy Prices

Key Facts

The US one-year inflation swap rate dropped below 2% driven by declining oil and gasoline prices. Seeking Alpha reported that this move in the swap rate, a key market-based measure of inflation expectations, reflects anticipation of cooling price pressures.

This decline occurred alongside mixed economic data released on November 10, 2026, which showed the US monthly inflation rate at 0.4%, exceeding the 0.3% forecast. Data from the same day placed the Consumer Price Index at 337.511, while the Super Core CPI recorded a monthly increase of 0.44%.

The OPEC Monthly Report is scheduled for release on November 11, 2026, followed by the EIA weekly report on petroleum and gasoline stocks on November 12, 2026, which may provide further direction for energy prices and inflation outlooks.