Energy Department Expects Record U.S. Output of 13.9 Million Barrels a Day in 2026
Key Facts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its report issued on November 10, estimated that average U.S. crude oil production would reach 13.9 million barrels a day in 2026, compared with 13.7 million in 2025. The new estimate puts expected production above last year's average, with increases projected to continue the following year. The agency said U.S. production would reach a new record of 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027. The projected trend comes as U.S. crude inventories fell, while Brent prices rose in October to their highest level since July 2022. The November outlook summary does not give direct reasons for raising the 2026 production estimate, so the report does not attribute the increase to well efficiency or expanded investment.
The EIA's September estimate for 2026 production was 13.8 million barrels a day, exceeding the previous record of 13.7 million in 2025; the agency then raised its forecast in November to 13.9 million. The agency reported that average production in the first half of 2026 was 13.7 million barrels a day, up 2%, or 0.3 million barrels a day, from the same period in 2025. Part of the projected production growth was concentrated in the Permian Basin, where the EIA estimated average output of 6.8 million barrels a day in 2026, up 3% from 2025. The agency linked Permian production growth to higher crude prices. Increased output from the federal Gulf of America also contributed in the first half of the year, rising by 0.2 million barrels a day, or 10%, compared with the first half of 2025.
Against the backdrop of the expansion, the EIA said U.S. crude production, including lease condensate, reached a record 13.6 million barrels a day in 2025, compared with 13.2 million in 2024. The agency attributed continued growth in part to improved shale oil well productivity and operating efficiency. In its September report, it said four major offshore projects came online during the previous year and contributed to higher production in the federal Gulf of America. These figures show that the November outlook follows earlier production increases, with contributions from onshore and offshore regions. The figure of 13.9 million barrels a day remains a projected annual average for 2026, not an actual reading for any single day.
The higher production forecast coincided with tight U.S. inventories and a sharp rise in crude prices during October. The Brent spot price averaged $124 a barrel, up $10 from September and the highest level since July 2022, when the average was $127 after adjustment for inflation. The EIA estimated U.S. commercial crude inventories at 410 million barrels at the end of October, the lowest end-of-month level since 2014. Inventories fell by 14.1 million barrels during October, as imports declined and exports increased. The agency attributed the decrease to a widening spread between Brent and WTI prices, which encouraged U.S. crude exports and reduced imports, as well as higher refinery inputs in previous months; refinery inputs reached 16.6 million barrels a day in October.
The EIA said Brent would remain near $100 a barrel through the rest of 2026, based on the assumption that most Middle Eastern production outside Iran would return to pre-conflict averages by the middle of next year. For petroleum products, the agency raised its forecast for the average U.S. retail diesel price in 2027 to $5.03 a gallon, up 12% from the previous month's forecast. The agency linked the estimate to its assumption that supply constraints in global petroleum product markets would continue through the end of 2027. The EIA also expects U.S. crude inventories to rise during 2027, from 416 million barrels at the end of January to 444 million at the end of December, as net imports increase. Looking further ahead on prices, it forecast Brent's average price would fall to $77 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027 as global inventories accumulate.
Markets are awaiting OPEC's monthly report the day after the EIA report, scheduled for November 11, 2026, which will provide the organization's estimates for the oil market. The Energy Information Administration's schedule also set November 12 as the release date for its weekly petroleum status report. Both dates follow the monthly outlook published by the EIA on November 10, which was prepared using data finalized on November 5. The agency is scheduled to issue its next monthly update on December 8, 2026. The U.S. production estimate in the report remains a key part of the supply picture that will take shape as these subsequent reports are released.