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Macro EconomyMedium•10 November 2026•
4 min read

U.S. Inflation Rises 0.4% in October, Exceeding Forecasts as Price Pressures Persist

Key Facts

1The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, after a 0.6% increase in September.
2The core index rose 0.3% in October, the same monthly increase recorded in September and August.
3Economists expected the Consumer Price Index to rise 0.3% in October, compared with an actual reading of 0.4%.
4A 0.3% rise in the shelter index accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase in the headline index.
5The October Producer Price Index will be released on November 13, 2026, at 08:30 a.m. Eastern time.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, after a 0.6% increase in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reading was above the 0.3% forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters. The core index, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.3% during the month, exceeding expectations by a tenth of a percentage point, according to the Associated Press. That means the slowdown in headline inflation compared with September was not accompanied by a slower pace in the core index. After the report was released, U.S. markets fell immediately and Treasury yields rose, amid expectations of persistent inflation and higher interest rates.

Shelter remained one of the main sources of price increases: the shelter index rose 0.3% in October, after a 0.4% increase in September, and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly rise in the headline index. The food index also rose 0.5% after showing no change in September, with food at home up 0.4% and food away from home up 0.5%. In energy, the index’s increase slowed to 0.7% in October from 5.2% in September. The gasoline index rose 1.0% during the month, compared with a 9.1% increase in the previous month. These components show a divergence between continued increases in shelter and food costs and a slower pace of gains in energy.

Among other categories, indexes for recreation, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and education rose in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. By contrast, the used cars and trucks index fell 1.2% after rising 0.7% in September, and the communications index declined 0.1%. The not seasonally adjusted level of the all-items Consumer Price Index was 337.511 points, compared with 336.940 points in September. The unadjusted index posted a monthly increase of 0.2% in October. The component readings show that declines in some prices did not prevent a monthly increase in the headline index.

The annual rate of change in the Consumer Price Index could not be published for October because the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not collect October 2025 survey data during the government funding lapse at that time. Without data for that month, there was no basis for year-over-year comparisons for most index series in October 2026. September’s reading had shown a monthly increase of 0.6% and an annual rise of 3.7%, before publication of the year-over-year comparison for October became impossible. The monthly reading therefore takes on particular importance in assessing price developments in this release. The missing annual comparison limits the ability to place October’s figure in a year-over-year context comparable with September’s reading.

The report again focused attention on the monetary policy path ahead of the Fed’s December meeting. The Associated Press said persistent high inflation makes an increase in the benchmark interest rate at the next meeting highly likely. Earlier on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller said a half-point increase the following month was a possibility, and described inflation as far above the central bank’s 2% target. Waller added: "Economic activity is strong, the labor market is stable, but inflation is far too high, and far above the Fed’s 2% target." His remarks put October’s reading in the context of debate over the scale of possible monetary tightening at the next meeting.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October Producer Price Index on Friday, November 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, according to the official release schedule. The November Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release on Thursday, December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Both releases follow October’s reading, which exceeded expectations for headline and core inflation. The October Employment Situation report was released on November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Investors continue to monitor economic data and Fed officials’ remarks ahead of the December meeting.