U.S. Power Generation Set to Hit Record 4,390 Billion Kilowatt-Hours in 2026
Key Facts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the power sector to generate about 4,390 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, up 2.7% from 2025 and a record level. The agency published its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10, after completing it on November 5. It attributed the increase to higher demand from the commercial sector and greater cooling needs as summer temperatures ran above average. The administration said generation growth will slow to 1.2% in 2027. It said its forecast for milder weather will limit residential demand that year. The estimates thus point to stronger growth in 2026 followed by a slowdown the next year.
The 2026 forecast marks an upward revision from September, when the administration projected growth of 2.2% and generation of 4,368 billion kilowatt-hours. It also cut its forecast for 2027 growth to 1.2% from 1.7% in the September estimate. The comparison shows that the November estimate raised the generation forecast for this year while trimming the expected growth rate for next year. In September, the administration tied demand growth to data center development and manufacturing activity, and said the West South Central region was expected to make the largest regional contribution to growth in electricity sales. It added at the time that some new data center projects in Texas had been temporarily halted. In its latest forecast, the administration identified the commercial sector and cooling needs as drivers of the increase in generation.
The administration expects most of the generation increase over the forecast period to come from utility-scale solar power plants. In its renewable energy estimates, it projected solar's share to rise from 7% in 2025 to 8% in 2026 and about 10% in 2027. It also forecast the addition of 72 gigawatts of new solar capacity and 20 gigawatts of wind capacity over the two years. These estimates link the expected increase in generation to the expansion of renewable capacity, with solar remaining the largest source of generation growth, according to the administration's forecast. The EIA said in January that demand from large computing centers was a key driver of rising electricity demand. It said at the time that the expected increase would make demand grow for four consecutive years for the first time since 2007, and that the four-year growth period would be the strongest since 2000.
The Energy Information Administration publishes its short-term forecasts monthly, with the next update due on December 8, 2026. That release will be the next opportunity to revise estimates for electricity generation and related demand. It follows the completion of the November forecast on November 5 and its publication on November 10. In the current update, the baseline forecast for record generation remains limited to 2026, while the administration expects generation growth to slow in 2027. It also cited milder weather as a factor that will reduce residential demand next year. The November forecast remains the administration's latest estimate for the stated period until the next update.