U.S. Cattle Herd at 75-Year Low as Tight Supply Persists

Key Facts

The U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level in 75 years, leaving beef-processing plants below capacity and contributing to facility closures, according to an Associated Press report citing Agriculture Department data. The department said the herd stood at 86.2 million head on January 1, the lowest figure over that period. The cattle shortage comes as beef production is below year-earlier levels, while packers face limited animals available for processing. Tyson announced a reorganization of its operations and the closure of a plant in Lexington, Nebraska, then announced plans to close two more plants in Utah and Illinois. This puts supply pressures on consumers and packers alike, with official forecasts pointing to continued slow production.

Agriculture Department data show that the total number of cattle and calves on U.S. farms was 94.2 million head on July 1, 2026, a slight increase from a year earlier. But beef cows, the segment directly tied to meat production, numbered 28.5 million head, down 1% year over year. The department estimated the 2026 calf crop at 32.5 million head, 2% below the 2025 crop. These figures reflect a shrinking base of future supply, as rebuilding the herd depends on cattle births rather than an immediate increase in processing. Agricultural economics professor Derrell Peel said the current situation took shape after “18 or 19 or 20 years of very low cattle prices.”

Drought in cattle-raising areas has deepened the contraction by prompting ranchers to sell their herds, experts cited by the Associated Press said. Rebuilding the herd takes time because a cow typically gives birth to one calf a year. Experts said restoring herd size and bringing prices down could take years, limiting how quickly supply can respond even if market conditions improve. The shortage is also reflected in federally inspected production, which was lower in most months of 2026 than in the corresponding months of 2025. The Agriculture Department’s Economic Research Service expects beef production to remain below year-earlier levels through the end of 2026.

At retail, beef and veal prices fell 1.3% in September from August, but remained 3.5% above their September 2025 level. The Economic Research Service expects prices to rise 8.7% during 2026. Across the supply chain, the department expects farm-level cattle prices to increase 5.8% and wholesale beef prices to rise 8.8% during the year. These forecasts show that the monthly decline in retail prices has not eased the annual pressures tied to tight supplies and the cost of buying cattle. Meanwhile, hourly wages in the United States rose 0.4% in October from September, the biggest monthly increase since January, according to data cited by the Associated Press.

Imports remain one option for easing the shortage, but their impact may not be felt quickly. The Agriculture Department said the reopening of the Arizona border crossing to Mexican cattle would take place under a phased plan; Mexico traditionally supplied 1.1 million head, or about 3% of U.S. cattle supplies. One expert estimated that imports would take months to return to usual levels, while an agricultural economist said he did not expect a measurable near-term effect on cattle or beef prices. A member of the Senate Agriculture Committee described restoring long-standing cattle trade as “essential to strengthening our supplies and supporting a healthy, competitive beef industry.”

The Economic Research Service expects the pace of slaughter to remain slow through 2027, even as it raises its cattle-import forecasts following the reopening of two border crossings. The department slightly lowered its beef production forecasts for 2026 and 2027 compared with the previous month. President Donald Trump’s administration announced in August that it would temporarily allow up to 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef to enter duty-free, to be sold below market price within 90 days. These measures remain separate from restoring live cattle supplies, which requires rebuilding the herd and resuming cross-border trade. The Agriculture Committee said the reopening of trade followed a “cautious, science-based approach,” while the department’s forecasts indicate that an improvement in domestic supply will remain gradual.