Ukraine’s Intelligence Says Russia Is Preparing to Strike Food Industry Facilities Nationwide
Key Facts
A source in Ukrainian military intelligence told the Kyiv Independent on November 10 that Russia is preparing to strike food industry facilities across Ukraine. The facilities include Ukrainian-owned companies and foreign firms operating in the country, according to the source. The warning lists crop storage and processing facilities and oil plants as potential targets. The source said Moscow seeks to undermine Ukraine’s food security and inflict significant economic damage. This comes as the food industry’s ability to operate is intertwined with Ukraine’s agricultural export revenues.
The list, according to the intelligence source, includes grain storage and processing facilities, including grain silos and warehouses, as well as sunflower oil plants and other vegetable oil facilities. These targets broaden the threat from crop storage to the stages of processing and converting crops into exportable products. The source also said the list includes dairy plants, meat processing facilities, poultry farms and other companies in the food sector. The warning was not limited to domestic companies: a source at Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence told Interfax-Ukraine that the targeted facilities also include foreign companies operating in the country. This means facilities owned by different parties could fall within the scope of the plan described by the two sources.
The intelligence source said the economic aim of the attacks is to reduce the foreign currency revenues Ukraine earns from its agricultural exports. The source added that the plan is intended to increase Russia’s share of global agricultural exports, with a particular focus on markets in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Under this account, the risks extend beyond damage to specific facilities to Ukraine’s ability to process crops and deliver its exports to markets. The mention of the Middle East among the regions targeted in the export competition puts the region at the center of the potential trade impact cited by the source. These aims were described by a Ukrainian intelligence source and have not been independently confirmed in the information available.
The source said Russia plans to accompany the strikes with an information campaign aimed at the morale of Ukrainian society. According to the source, this campaign adds a parallel track of pressure on the food sector alongside targeting the facilities themselves. The source links the potential strikes to food security and economic damage on one hand, and to messages directed at Ukrainian society on the other. The warning did not specify when the strikes might take place or provide details about specific facilities on the list. It also contained no information on sunflower oil or seed prices in Odesa or Kyiv, or in neighboring countries’ markets, during the November 10 session.
The warning follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement on November 6 that Russia was preparing to strike critical facilities and bridges across the Dnipro River. That was a broader warning than the one concerning the food industry conveyed by the intelligence source on November 10. The sequence of the two warnings places food facilities among Ukraine’s concerns about potential targets extending beyond critical infrastructure, according to statements by officials and the intelligence source. The latest warning gave no figures on losses or suspended exports, and no estimate of the impact on markets. Details of the targets and timeline for potential strikes remain unspecified in the information conveyed by the sources.
Against the backdrop of preparations for the risk of disruption to storage and exports, Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food said on September 4 that the country had secured about $35 million in international support for temporary grain storage. The funding included $25 million from the World Bank and about $10 million from other partners, according to the ministry. The ministry said the need for additional funding remained. Ukraine and Italy also discussed storage solutions and support for restoring port infrastructure and alternative routes after Russian attacks on ports. This support shows some of the arrangements Ukraine was considering to address challenges in storing and exporting grain, while the new warning leaves open the possibility that other food facilities could be targeted.