South African Vehicle Exports to North America Fall to 6,530 in 2025
Key Facts
South African vehicle exports to North America fell to 6,530 in 2025, from 25,554 in 2024, according to the Automotive Business Council (naamsa)'s review for the final quarter of the year. The council attributed the continued impact on exports to U.S. tariffs on cars, noting that exports to Canada rose during the final quarter. The decline followed the United States' imposition in April 2025 of a 25% tariff on imported vehicles under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, followed by tariffs on auto parts in May. The downturn puts pressure on a major export industry, even as exports of vehicles and components reached a record level in 2025. naamsa said ending benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) would not close the U.S. market to South African products, but they would remain subject to the existing tariff regime.
South Africa's government said on November 2 that the United States had notified it 60 days in advance of its intention to withdraw benefits under AGOA, effective January 1, 2027. The announcement indicates an intention to withdraw the benefits on the specified date, while exports to the U.S. market remain possible under applicable tariffs. naamsa believes the additional impact of ending preferential treatment could be limited, after existing tariffs had already reduced shipments to the United States. Government data show that about 89% of South Africa's exports to the United States entered in 2025 under the World Trade Organization's normal most-favored-nation terms, compared with about 10% under AGOA. The share of exports entering through the program had reached 28% in 2024, indicating that the weight of the preferences had declined before their announced withdrawal.
The value of South African exports benefiting from AGOA was about $1.7 billion in 2025, down from $4 billion in 2024, according to the government. Those exports accounted for about 1% of the country's total global exports. But their small share of the total does not diminish the exposure of sectors and companies that rely on preferential access to the United States. Bilateral trade between the two countries reached $28.8 billion in 2025, while more than 600 U.S. companies operate in South Africa and support about 134,600 jobs. The government said the impact of the withdrawal decision would vary by sector and that it was working with affected industries to assess the consequences.
The automotive sector remains one of South Africa's largest industries, with exports of vehicles and components reaching a record 291 billion rand in 2025. The sector contributed 5.2% of gross domestic product and supported about 498,000 jobs in the formal economy, according to Business Day. naamsa warned that the loss of export volumes to the United States would affect original equipment manufacturers' supply chains through suppliers and production efficiencies tied to the scale of activity. When the U.S. tariffs were announced in April 2025, the association said manufacturers could not absorb the costs, which could raise costs for U.S. consumers and reduce their choice of brands produced in South Africa. It then called for urgent trade talks between the two countries' governments.
Automakers are seeking alternative markets, including Canada, while they can benefit from existing trade arrangements with the European Union, the United Kingdom and African markets. However, naamsa warned that diversifying export destinations would take time. More broadly, the government said it was seeking opportunities in the African Continental Free Trade Area, India, the Southern African Development Community, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Mercosur and China. The government will work with affected industries to assess the implications of the withdrawal, as the announced start date of January 1, 2027, approaches. Existing U.S. tariffs on vehicles and components remain a factor affecting exporters' ability to restore shipment volumes to the U.S. market.