Brent Falls Below $90 for First Time Since August 31 as Escalation Fears Ease

Key Facts

Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel in trading on Tuesday, November 10, for the first time since August 31, as fears of supply disruptions eased after U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran. By 09:30 GMT, Brent futures were down 2.58% at $90.18 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell 2.43% to $84.74. Reuters, via Investing.com, attributed the move to easing concerns about supply disruptions, while the Associated Press said Trump’s comments eased fears of further escalation. Trump said on Monday he would postpone launching new military strikes on Iran after appeals from countries in the region, including Qatar. Tuesday’s decline followed a 5.85% drop in Brent at the previous session’s settlement.

Crude prices fell further in early trading, with the Associated Press reporting Brent down 2.2% at $90.52 a barrel and U.S. crude down by the same percentage to $84.94. In a later report, Brent futures were down 2.58% at $90.18 and West Texas Intermediate was down 2.43% at $84.74 by 09:30 GMT. These moves put the session in the context of a sharp decline that began in the previous session, when Brent closed down 5.85%. EL7’s daily data recorded Brent’s close at $92.57 a barrel on November 9 and U.S. crude’s close at $86.85. These prices recorded in the previous session provide the backdrop to the move that futures continued in Tuesday trading.

Trump said on Monday he would postpone new strikes on Iran following appeals from countries in the region, in a move that dampened expectations of a wider confrontation. The Associated Press quoted him as describing the war as “effectively over militarily,” and linked oil’s fall below $91 to the effect of his comments on escalation fears. But the softer tone was not accompanied by an announcement ending the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The agency reported that U.S. forces continued to enforce a blockade aimed at stopping the flow of Iranian oil to the global market. Shipping and regional supply therefore remained among the factors traders were watching alongside Washington’s statements.

An analyst at KCM Trade said the market had prioritized Trump’s more conciliatory tone in pricing oil. By contrast, an analyst at Eurasia Group said the price decline did not eliminate shipping risks, and that Brent might not fall below $90 without signs of a more lasting easing of tensions and a U.S.-Iranian agreement. Brent had fallen about 22% from the six-month high it reached on October 30, as fears that Trump would escalate attacks after the U.S. midterm elections eased. Even so, concerns about shipping disruptions remained, according to Reuters via MarketScreener. On the supply side, a Reuters poll showed OPEC output rose in October, led by increases in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq despite continued export restrictions.

Investors were also awaiting the U.S. Consumer Price Index report for October, with annual inflation expected to rise to 3.9% from 3.7% in September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics had scheduled the report’s release for November 10 at 08:30 a.m. Eastern time. In the reading published on October 14, annual inflation was 3.7%, compared with a forecast of 3.6% and a previous reading of 3.4%. The focus on inflation puts oil prices in a session where developments in the Middle East intersect with investors’ assessment of the price outlook in the United States. The Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report was also scheduled for Thursday, November 12, after being postponed from Wednesday because of the federal government’s closure on Veterans Day.

The Energy Information Administration’s October outlook provides a longer-term reference for the price trajectory, estimating average Brent at $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from the previous month’s forecast. The agency attributed the higher estimate to Middle East disruptions and declining global inventories, alongside tight diesel markets. The estimate comes as Brent has fallen sharply from its late-October peak, while shipping risks remain part of the market’s assessment. The weekly petroleum status report due Thursday is expected to provide an update on U.S. supply and inventory data. Markets will continue to monitor Trump’s comments on Iran and developments related to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in coming sessions.