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Macro EconomyMedium•10 November 2026•
2 min read

Norway’s Core Inflation Falls to 2.7% in October, Below Market Forecasts

Key Facts

1Annual core CPI-ATE inflation was 2.7% in October, compared with 3.0% in September, and below the market consensus of 2.8%.
2Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.5% at its November 4 meeting and announced the decision on November 5.
3Norges Bank targets inflation close to 2% over time.
4Monetary Policy Report 4/26 is scheduled to be published with the rate decision on December 17, 2026.

Norway’s core inflation slowed to 2.7% year on year in October, from 3.0% in September, according to a Danske Bank estimate published via FXStreet. The reading was below the market consensus cited in the analysis at 2.8%. The bank’s team had also forecast that the index would fall to 2.7%, making the result in line with its estimate and below consensus. The CPI-ATE index excludes energy products and tax adjustments. The reading comes as the central bank continues to monitor inflation ahead of its next meeting.

Danske Bank’s analysis attributed its forecast for a decline in the index mainly to base effects, as the monthly increase in October of the previous year was large. The analysis noted that the impact of “Black Week” offers may be smaller than estimates suggest, with risks tilted toward a higher reading. This puts the bank’s forecast in the context of annual comparison factors and seasonal promotions, rather than as evidence that all price pressures are easing. Norges Bank had said domestic inflation in goods and services remained high, while inflation in imported consumer goods slowed and came in below expectations. The bank said inflation in Norway had broadly evolved in line with its forecasts, and that the krone was stronger than assumed, easing inflation in itself.

Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.5% at its November 4 meeting and announced the decision on November 5. Governor Ida Wolden Bache said that “inflation is too high,” and that keeping the rate at a high level for some time was likely. The bank targets inflation close to 2% over time, making the CPI-ATE reading of 2.7% higher than its target. In its assessment ahead of the meeting, the bank said headline annual inflation was 3.4% in September, compared with 3.0% for the CPI-ATE index. Wolden Bache also said unemployment stood at 2.0% in the latest figures, and employment appeared to have continued rising.

Attention is turning to the next rate decision and Monetary Policy Report 4/26, scheduled for publication on December 17. The date follows the November hold, which left monetary policy unchanged at 4.5%. The bank’s stated inflation target remains close to 2% over the long term. The bank also said domestic inflation in goods and services remained high, while inflation in imported consumer goods slowed. New monetary policy projections will be released with the next decision.