Mizuho raises Ameren price target to $123 after guidance increase
Key Facts
Mizuho raised its price target for Ameren to $123 from $113 on November 9, while maintaining its Outperform rating, according to Investing.com. The analyst's revision followed the company's third-quarter results and updated earnings outlook, linking the higher valuation to earnings growth and planned investment. Earnings per share came in at $2.42, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.29. AEE shares closed at $114.02 in the November 9 session, according to EL7 data. The new price target puts Mizuho's estimate above that session's close, but remains an analyst estimate, not a guarantee of returns.
Ameren reported GAAP net income of $676 million, or $2.42 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2026. The company compared that with net income of $640 million and diluted earnings of $2.35 per share in the third quarter of 2025. The comparison indicates year-over-year increases in net income and earnings per share, alongside EPS exceeding the consensus estimate for the current quarter. The company said improved results compared with the adjusted year-earlier period reflected returns from investments in infrastructure and new technologies. It added that higher retail electricity sales in Missouri contributed, driven mainly by warmer temperatures.
Total electricity sales rose 3% to 19,586 million kilowatt-hours in the third quarter, supported by higher sales volumes in Missouri, according to Zacks. This is consistent with Ameren's account that increased retail electricity sales in the state contributed to quarterly results, with the company attributing the increase mainly to warmer weather. However, the company's annual guidance does not assume this factor will persist: it said its 2026 earnings outlook assumes normal temperatures during the final three months of the year. Its 2027 outlook and multiyear growth projections also assume normal temperatures. This assumption clearly limits the role of weather in interpreting the published guidance.
Ameren raised its 2026 EPS guidance range to $5.35–$5.55 from the previous $5.25–$5.45, according to the disclosure attached to its 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The guidance increase follows third-quarter results that beat the consensus estimate, while the company said the normal-temperature assumption applies to the remainder of the year. The revised range gives investors an updated estimate of management's expectations for 2026 EPS. The company also announced a 2027 range of $5.70–$5.90 per share. It said the midpoint of that range represents growth of 8.4% from the midpoint of its original 2026 guidance.
Over the longer term, Ameren expects EPS to grow at a compound annual rate of between 8% and 10% during 2027–2031, using the $5.80 midpoint of its 2027 guidance as the base for the calculation, according to its SEC disclosure. The growth outlook is underpinned by a $38.1 billion infrastructure investment plan, which the company said supports expected compound annual growth of about 13.3% in its regulated rate base between 2026 and 2031. The plan links capital spending to expansion of the regulated rate base, the investment base that determines the trajectory of returns in the company's regulated business. Mizuho said the growth outlook is based on 2.9 gigawatts of load, covered by signed power supply agreements for 2.8 gigawatts. It said an additional 5.6 gigawatts of confirmed interest in large loads is outside current projections.