Qatar and UAE LNG shipments fall 35 billion cubic metres amid supply disruption
Key Facts
Liquefied natural gas shipments from Qatar and the UAE fell by 35 billion cubic metres year on year between March and June 2026, the International Energy Agency said, reflecting disruption to Gulf supplies during the period. The agency estimated that annual supplies from the two countries combined would decline by about 45%, or 54 billion cubic metres, compared with 2025. That leaves the gas market facing a large regional supply gap, even as new volumes from other producers are expected to come online. The agency said new projects in North America, Africa and Australia are expected to add nearly 50 billion cubic metres to global supply in 2026. In its estimate, additional supplies from outside the Gulf will broadly offset the region's losses.
The impact of disrupted Gulf shipments is tied to the balance of the global market, as gas demand fell in the first nine months of 2026. The International Energy Agency estimated that global demand declined by more than 1%, or more than 35 billion cubic metres, compared with the same period in 2025. It attributed the decline to weaker demand in the Middle East and reduced gas consumption as prices rose in major import markets in Asia and Europe. It said high prices encouraged a switch from gas to coal in several Asian markets. They also weighed on gas use in energy-intensive industries, including fertiliser production.
For the year as a whole, the agency expects global gas demand to contract by about 1.5%, or nearly 65 billion cubic metres, in 2026, marking the third annual decline since 2020. The estimate means expected weak demand coincides with lower output from Qatar and the UAE, while market balance depends heavily on new flows from other regions. The agency said additional supplies from outside the Gulf are expected to broadly offset the region's losses, but warned that a delayed recovery in Gulf exports could tip the market into its first annual decline in LNG supplies since 2012. It forecast global trade to remain broadly stable in 2026. The timing of the recovery in Gulf shipments remains a crucial factor for supply over the rest of the year.
In the United States, LNG exports rose 23% in the first half of 2026 to an average of 17.4 billion cubic feet per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Volumes bound for Asia rose 108% compared with the first half of 2025, with the agency linking the increase in shipments to Asia to disruption to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Exports to Europe also increased by volume, although their growth was smaller than the rise in flows to Asia. The data show U.S. supplies shifting toward Asian markets that needed alternatives amid disruption to Gulf supplies. The increase in U.S. exports coincided with a rise in the average European gas benchmark price to $14.74 per million British thermal units in the first half of 2026, from $13.10 in the corresponding period of 2025.
U.S. policy adds another factor to the supply outlook. Reuters reported that Democratic gains could increase pressure from environmental groups to postpone consideration of a permitting reform bill until next year, in opposition to what the groups described as major concessions to oil and gas. Reuters said TD Cowen cut its estimate of the project's chances of success to about 25% from about 40% in a report published on 4 November 2026. This comes amid a legislative debate over permitting measures and does not in itself establish a slowdown in U.S. LNG export growth. On market developments, the Energy Information Administration scheduled its Weekly Petroleum Status Report for Thursday, 12 November 2026, covering the week ended 6 November. The report includes a table of gasoline and fuel ethanol inventories by PAD district, while the OPEC+ alliance said its next meeting of the seven participating countries will be held on 29 November 2026 to review market conditions.