Lavrov says diesel deal lowered prices despite shipments failing to reach US
Key Facts
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an article published by Kommersant on November 10, 2026, that an agreement to supply Russian diesel to the United States had begun to lower prices, even though no shipment had been confirmed as reaching the United States by November 5. The gap between Moscow’s claims of a price effect and the failure of actual deliveries puts the agreement to the test of implementation, not just announcement. The US Treasury Department issued General License No. 135 on October 9, allowing transactions involving the sale, delivery, discharge and import of Russian diesel. The license text did not say its purpose was to stabilize global markets. Lavrov said that “the normal functioning of fuel markets is undermined by several factors,” listing geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions, sanctions and the seizure of tankers.
The Associated Press reported that two sanctioned tankers left the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk last month, declaring the US East Coast as their destination, before changing course; one headed toward Brazil and the other to the Mediterranean. Russia announced in October that it could supply up to 300,000 tons to the US market and other partners during that month, then up to 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons in December. These are announced potential supply figures and do not prove that the volumes were shipped or arrived. As of November 5, the arrangement had not resulted in a confirmed delivery to the United States. Washington and Moscow have also not disclosed whether the agreement is written, or its price, payment terms or participating companies.
Lavrov said diesel prices had fallen, but Reuters noted that he provided no diesel price data to support the claim. US diesel futures, meanwhile, have fallen about 11% since the agreement was announced on October 9, according to Reuters. However, the US national average retail price was $6.292 per gallon in the week of November 2, compared with $6.179 on October 12. Retail prices had reached a record in the previous week, Reuters reported. The divergence highlights that the move in futures had not, by that point, translated into a lower weekly price paid at the pump.
Potential shipments also face political and legal sensitivities within the United States. New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill advised port and terminal operators in her state to reject vessels carrying Russian fuel, warning of potential legal consequences. In Russia, fuel shortages had returned in at least six regions, Reuters reported, after Ukrainian strikes targeted at least eight major refineries during the two weeks before its report. These developments come as Moscow discusses potential exports abroad while its domestic market faces supply pressures. Lavrov had said Russia supplied Europe with energy resources worth $320 billion since 2022. The figure provides context for the scale of Russian energy trade with Europe as presented by the minister; it is not a measure of diesel shipments to the United States.
In a broader context, Lavrov cited an International Energy Agency estimate that AI’s energy consumption could reach by 2030 the amount Japan currently consumes. The minister linked fuel-market disruptions to factors including geopolitical tensions, supply-chain interruptions, rising protectionism, sanctions and the seizure of tankers. These arguments place the diesel issue within his broader case about the link between the global economy and international security, the subject of his article published on November 10. But the tankers’ routes and US retail prices remain direct indicators of the gap between announcing new supplies and their reaching consumers. The available facts do not confirm that the volumes announced for November became shipments bound for the United States.
The US Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release data on average weekly retail prices, while the American Petroleum Institute listed November 10 as the release date for its weekly statistical bulletin for the week ended November 6. On OPEC+, the group of seven countries said its November 1 meeting had decided to keep December’s required production levels at those set for September 2026. The group scheduled its next meeting for November 29 to review market conditions. These dates will come as the announced volumes of Russian diesel still require confirmation through actual shipments and deliveries. Tracking vessel routes and implementation, along with market data and the OPEC+ meeting, remains central to the next developments in the supply picture.